At present, the iron and steel industry is the largest carbon emitter in the industrial field. All parties are very concerned about the green and low-carbon development process of the industry. As early as July 17, at the 2021 (12th) China Iron and steel energy conservation and emission reduction forum, he Wenbo, party secretary and executive president of China Iron and Steel Industry Association, revealed that Chinas iron and steel industry has preliminarily completed the first draft of the implementation plan for carbon peak of iron and steel industry, basically defined the peak path, key tasks and carbon reduction potential of the industry, and is soliciting opinions from all parties.

In 2020, China announced that it would increase its national independent contribution and strive to reach the peak of carbon dioxide emission by 2030. As a typical resource and energy intensive industry, iron and steel industry is an important industry that takes the lead in implementing the carbon peak plan.

At present, the carbon emission of Chinas steel industry accounts for about 15% of Chinas total carbon emission, which is the manufacturing industry with the highest carbon emission. The world produces and uses up to 1.8 billion tons of steel every year, of which nearly 50% is produced in mainland China, and the carbon emission of Chinas steel industry also accounts for about 50% of the total carbon emission of the global steel industry. It is the industry with the largest carbon emission in the domestic manufacturing industry. Green and low-carbon has become the core proposition of the transformation and development of the iron and steel industry.

It was learned that the two major documents of the iron and steel industry, the implementation plan for carbon peak in the iron and steel industry and the guiding opinions on promoting the high-quality development of the iron and steel industry, are expected to be officially released before the end of this year. Experts said that this year, industrial policies such as iron and steel production capacity control and import and export of iron and steel products have changed greatly, and the focus of the policy has gradually shifted from "de capacity" to "reducing production", aiming to deepen the supply side structural reform of the iron and steel industry and effectively promote the transformation of the iron and steel industry from large to strong. With the introduction of the plan and opinions, the green, low-carbon and high-quality development of the iron and steel industry will be accelerated. The two heavyweight documents will have a significant impact on the iron and steel industry.

Under the background of "carbon neutralization", low-carbon emission reduction of iron and steel industry is of great significance to achieve carbon peak in China. In recent years, "de capacity" has achieved some results, but the field inspection of "looking back" found that "de capacity" has the problem of "more capacity, more output". Therefore, the party and the government timely adjust policies and gradually establish a stock constraint mechanism based on carbon emission, pollutant emission and total energy consumption, so as to ensure the year-on-year decline of steel production in 2021. Under the constraints of "de capacity" and "pressure capacity", the steel output decreased significantly; Steel tariff adjustment to help reduce production; The growth of steel demand and the decline of inventory may make it more difficult to reduce production.

In 2021, China will pay more attention to environmental protection policies. Reducing carbon emissions and increasing energy utilization are a major focus of the transformation of the iron and steel industry. Iron and steel rolling will improve the automatic production process and reduce manual participation. At the same time, automatic intelligent measuring instruments such as caliper, width gauge, thickness gauge and profiler will be added to detect real-time quality, The detection data is transmitted to the automatic control system to complete the rolling with few or no people, so as to reduce the risk of workers.

Carbon peak in 2030 and carbon neutralization in 2060 are Chinas solemn commitments to the world. The iron and steel industry accounts for 15% of Chinas total carbon emissions. It is the industry with the largest carbon emissions among 31 manufacturing categories, and the task of emission reduction is arduous.

At the beginning of 2021, Baowu group put forward the road map and timetable for Baowus low-carbon and green development in the future. The carbon peak will be achieved in 2023, the process technology capable of reducing carbon by 30% will be available in 2025, the carbon will be reduced by 30% in 2035, and the carbon will be neutralized by 2050. Chinas implementation plan for carbon peak in iron and steel industry is expected to be officially released before the end of 2021.

At the end of 2020, the Ministry of industry and information technology proposed that Chinas iron and steel industry must ensure that the crude steel output in 2021 is lower than the record level this year. The proportion of stainless steel production in iron and steel is limited, which is only 2.89% in 2020. It is reasonable that the change of stainless steel production has a very limited impact on iron and steel production, which is also one of the reasons for the fluke mentality in the industry. Facts have proved that production restriction has not played a role. In 2020, the crude steel output of stainless steel in China was 30.43 million tons, and the monthly average output was 2.54 million tons. From January to July 2021, the cumulative output is 19.8 million tons, and the average monthly output is 2.83 million tons.

With the passage of time, the task is even more arduous. In the remaining five months, the annual target can be achieved only when the average monthly output is reduced to 2.13 million tons.

In September 2021, "double control of energy consumption" will play a role in the stainless steel industry. The distribution of stainless steel production capacity in China is relatively concentrated. Jiangsu accounts for the highest proportion of 21%, followed by Fujian, 20%, followed by Guangxi and Guangdong, 14% and 11% respectively. According to the "double control" barometer of energy consumption in various regions in the first half of 2021 recently released by the national development and Reform Commission, the "double control" targets of Jiangsu, Fujian and Guangdong are "red lights". The production reduction of stainless steel plants also began in these areas.

According to the statistics compiled by Aetna, the power limit in Guangxi was 30% in September, the output of stainless steel was calculated according to 70% in August, Guangdong Qingshan and Lianzhong were also calculated according to 70%, and Jiangsu Delong and Huale were calculated according to 50% of the output. It is expected that the output of stainless steel will be reduced by 350000 tons in September. From the completion of the dual control target, Fujian Province is also under great pressure. If Fujian is affected by this, it will have a greater impact on the market supply of stainless steel. If the policy of steel output and energy consumption is continuously tightened and strictly implemented, China can only rely on increasing the import of stainless steel and reducing the export of stainless steel to ensure domestic demand, and China will become a net importer of stainless steel.

Due to the rapid growth of stainless steel production in Indonesia and the limited amount of ferronickel flowing back to China, the price of ferronickel is rising, superimposed with the decline of domestic ferronickel point, and the demand of domestic production can be met only by purchasing power nickel. On September 16, due to the reduction of stainless steel production, the demand for electric nickel decreased. The price of stainless steel in the futures market rose by the limit, while the price of electric nickel turned green. If in the long run, both stainless steel and ferronickel are affected by dual control of energy consumption, whether it has a great impact on stainless steel or ferronickel should be seen while walking.

In December 2015, the supply side structural reform was proposed for the new economic normal. At that time, capacity removal was the main means. The price of stainless steel increased unilaterally from the base price of 11300 yuan / ton in December 2015 to 17850 yuan / ton at the end of 2016. Now, the impact of energy consumption dual control instruction on output is immediate. In particular, the stainless steel futures market will amplify the impact on the price, resulting in the intensification of stainless steel price fluctuation. In the long run, the requirements for energy consumption will only become more and more strict, the comprehensive production cost of high-energy consumption products will rise, and the "low-cost" stainless steel produced by Chinas integrated production may become a thing of the past.