1、 Raw material report:

1. Nickel: on September 27, the latest price of nickel in London was $19326, down $61, or 0.31%. The latest price of Shanghai nickel was 145550 yuan, up 100 yuan, or 0.07%.   Upper inner Mongolia high carbon ferrochrome fecr55c1000 (50 basis) 10700 yuan / ton.

2. Stainless steel continuous: the latest price was 20735 yuan, down 600 yuan, down 2.81%. The position was 30688 hands and the trading volume was 68368 hands.

3. Price of Dainan waste stainless steel

201 Ni ≈ 1-1.5% 6150-6350304 Ni ≥ 8%; primary material 12900-13100304 Ni ≈ 7.6-8%; return material 12300-12400;

316 return material 17300-17500, Ni ≥ 10%; primary material 17700-17800316l, Ni ≥ 10% Mo ≈ 2% 17900-18100;

310S Ni = 18-19% 22100-22300430 Cr ≈ 16% - 18%; Mn ≈ 1% - 2% 5150-5300431 return charge 3200-3300;

2、 Wuxi stainless steel coil reference price

1. TISCO hot rolling guide price:

300 hot rolling series: 304 material 1800, rough edge 21800 yuan / ton, 304 / No.1 21100 yuan / ton; 321 / No.1 23700 yuan / ton; 316L / No.1 29300 yuan / ton.

Medium plate (trimming, thickness: 14-20mm, width: 1500mm) 304 material - 22200 yuan / ton, 321 material 25600 yuan / ton, 316L material 31100 yuan / ton.

2. Dongte hot rolling guide price: 20700 yuan / ton for s30403, 20900 yuan / ton for 14mm, 21400 yuan / ton for 16mm; 29400 yuan / ton for s31603, 29800 yuan / ton for 14mm, 30300 yuan / ton for 16mm; 26500 yuan / ton for 309S, 37800 yuan / ton for 310S, 28500 yuan / ton for 2205 and 32000 yuan / ton for 317L.

3. Qingshan hot rolling: 304 material 21200 yuan / ton;

4. Zhangpu guide price: 21400 yuan / ton for 304 material; 23300 yuan / ton for 321 hot rolling; 29100 yuan / ton for 316L hot rolling.

3、 Reference price of stainless steel pipe rod

1. [Qingshan round steel ￠ 65-130] on September 26, the price was 19100 yuan / ton for s30400 material, 26900 yuan / ton for 316L material, 22100 yuan / ton for TP321 material and 20900 yuan / ton for 321 material.

2. [Delong bar ￠ 65-130] 304 material 18800 yuan / ton, 316L material 26600 yuan / ton.

3. [Yongxing bar ￠ 65-130] 304 material 20200 yuan / ton, TP321 material 23100 yuan / ton, 316 material 29500 yuan / ton, 316L material 32500 yuan / ton, s2205 material 28500 yuan / ton.

3. [Anhui Fukai sealing plate ￠ 65-130] on September 24, the price was 26500 yuan / ton for s2205 material, 65000 yuan / ton for 904L material, 32000 yuan / ton for S32750 material and 39000 yuan / ton for 310S material.

4. [Huaxin Lihua ￠ 65-130] s30400 material is 2000 yuan / ton, 316ls material is 27700 yuan / ton, and 32107 material is 22200 yuan / ton.

2. [Zhejiang Benji heat exchange tube] 25 * 2 * 6000 cold drawn specification - 30408 material 31.6 yuan / kg; s31603 material 41 yuan / kg;

4. [Zhejiang Benji welded pipe] 219-813 * 4-6 pickling specification - 30408 material 27.3 yuan / kg; s31603 material 37.9 yuan / kg; 32168 material 34 yuan / kg

6、 Market analysis

The east wind of industrial supply outweighs the headwind of demand

Recently, local production and power restrictions have become more stringent. Independent electric furnace plants and thread rolling lines in Jiangsu, Guangdong and other places are mostly controlled due to high power consumption. Electrolytic aluminum industries in Guangxi, Yunnan and Ningxia are subject to power and production restrictions, and the resumption and operation of electrolytic aluminum have high requirements for stable power supply, which may be difficult to fulfill under the current supply constraints; stainless steel and ferronickel production in Fujian Affected;

Energy risk may intensify in the fourth quarter

On August 17, the national development and Reform Commission issued the barometer for the achievement of the dual control target of energy consumption in all regions in the first half of 2021 to analyze and warn the dual control situation of energy consumption in all provinces. 9 provinces (regions) In the first half of the year, the intensity of energy consumption rose instead of falling, which was a first-class warning, including large industrial provinces such as Jiangsu and Guangdong. After the energy demand increased more than expected this summer, it began to weaken seasonally, and the price of natural gas peaked and fell. However, one wave after another, "La Nina" may cause a cold winter, exacerbating global concerns about energy shortage this winter.

Production reduction of stainless steel plant

In the nickel industry chain, stainless steel is greatly affected. In mid September, stainless steel enterprises in Jiangsu, Guangdong, Shandong, Fujian and Guangxi successively stopped production and reduced production, and the price of stainless steel hit a record high. Since the production in the first half of the month has not been greatly affected, we expect the domestic stainless steel production to decrease by 15% to 2.3 million tons in September, and the production of 300 series stainless steel with high nickel content may be reduced by 13% month on month %To 1.2 million tons. Considering that the domestic crude stainless steel production has increased by 20% year-on-year from January to August this year, the "double limit" measures of the stainless steel industry may be more stringent in the fourth quarter.

The exchange continued to raise the stainless steel transaction fee in the previous period

The official of the last stock exchange: it is hereby notified that from the trading on September 27, 2021 (i.e. the night trading on September 24), the transaction handling fee of stainless steel futures contracts ss2110 and ss2111 is adjusted to 10 yuan / hand, and the transaction handling fee of closing todays position within a day is adjusted to 20 yuan / hand.

What is the impact of power rationing on stainless steel in ferronickel plant?

1、 Event background

Since the second half of 2021, dual control of energy consumption has been the hottest topic in the iron and steel industry. Then, at the end of the stainless steel industry chain, affected by policy regulation, a 200 series integrated steel plant in Lianyungang also stopped production on September 11, following the power restriction of a large integrated steel plant in Jiangsu. Similarly, stainless steel enterprises in Guangdong and Guangxi were subject to power restriction and environmental protection in varying degrees as early as July Policy impact, which also caused the market to worry about the later market supply.

2、 The storm of power rationing hit the ferronickel plant

On September 14, due to strengthening the dual control of energy consumption, Guangxi implemented the production restriction requirements for local iron and steel enterprises from now on, and Jiangsu also issued the requirements for controlling energy consumption for nickel production enterprises. This wave of power restriction has really hit ferronickel plants.

In fact, as early as August, Meng Wei, spokesman of the national development and Reform Commission, said that in the first half of 2021, the energy consumption intensity of 9 provinces (regions) in Qinghai, Ningxia, Guangxi, Guangdong, Fujian, Xinjiang, Yunnan, Shaanxi and Jiangsu did not decrease but increased year-on-year, and the reduction rate of energy consumption intensity of 10 provinces did not meet the progress requirements, so the national energy-saving situation is very grim.

According to Mysteel survey data, Guangxi, Guangdong, Fujian and Jiangsu are the main nickel production bases in China. The output of ferronickel in these four regions accounts for more than 68% of the national total. According to the grade, among the four regions, high ferronickel accounts for 37% of the national total high Ferronickel, and low ferronickel accounts for 92% of the national total low ferronickel.

At present, the main producing areas of ferronickel are only Shandong, Liaoning and Hebei, which have not been affected by the power restriction policy. However, environmental protection supervision is being carried out in Shandong recently, and the output of medium and high ferronickel accounts for 44%. Although it has not had a substantial impact on the production of mainstream large factories, it is still necessary to be vigilant against this risk.

At the same time, the Suli high nickel mining area in the Philippines at the upstream end is about to enter the rainy season. Since this year, the frequent bad weather and epidemic situation have also had a certain impact on shipment and transportation. At present, the CIF transaction price of Ni: 1.4% ore is US $86 / wet ton, Ni: 1.5% ore is US $94 / wet ton, and Ni: 1.8% ore is US $130 / wet ton. The scarcity of high-quality resources leads to an obvious premium, and the shipping disturbance still exists. Four seasons Under the condition of low inventory, Du does not rule out that the ferronickel plant will have further production reduction plans. In the twinkling of an eye, the Mid Autumn Festival is coming, the end of September is the end, and the end of the month is a new round of goods preparation and procurement period for 300 series steel plants. Who is better to cut the production of stainless steel and ferronickel by limiting power. To borrow a word from the boss of the industry, it is better to look at the quantity. Lets wait and see!