1、 Raw material report:

1. Nickel: on March 9, the latest price of nickel in London was $48070.2, up $7.2, or 0.01%. The latest price of Shanghai nickel was 267700 yuan, up 38890 yuan, or 17%. The domestic high-carbon ferrochrome fecr55c1000 (50 basis) in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai was 9000 yuan / 50 basis ton, and the ferromolybdenum femo60 in Shanghai was 171000 yuan / ton, up 2500 yuan.

2. Stainless steel continuous: the latest price is 20870 yuan, down 690 yuan, down 3.2%. The position is 43483 hands and the trading volume is 532098 hands.

3. Price of Dainan waste stainless steel

201Ni≈1-1.5%7750-7950，304Ni≥8％； Primary material 13300-13500304ni ≈ 7.6-8%; Return material 12800-13000;

316 return material 18350-18550316ni ≥ 10%; Grade I material 18850-18950316l, Ni ≥ 10%, Mo ≈ 2%, 18750-18950;

310S Ni=18-19% 22950-23150，430Cr≈16%-18%； Mn ≈ 1% - 2% 5950-6100431 return material 4300-4500.

2、 Wuxi stainless steel coil reference price

1. TISCO hot rolling guide price:

300 hot rolling series: 304 material 1800, rough edge 24500 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan; 22700 yuan / ton of 304 / No.1; 27000 yuan / ton of 321 / No.1; 33900 yuan / ton of 316L / No.1.

Medium plate (trimming, thickness: 14-20mm, width: 1500mm) 304 material - 23200 yuan / ton, 321 material 28100 yuan / ton, 316L material 32800 yuan / ton.

2. Dongte hot rolling guide price: 304 material increased by 100 yuan, 22200 yuan / ton for 4-12mm and 22400 yuan / ton for 14mm; 16mm 22900 yuan / ton; 316L material increased by 200 yuan, 32200 yuan / ton for 4-12mm and 32600 yuan / ton for 14mm; 16mm 33100 yuan / ton; 2205 hot rolled white skin coil 33500 yuan / ton.

3. Qingshan hot rolling: 304 material 21300 yuan / ton, down 450 yuan;

4. Zhangpu guidance price;: 304 material 22000 yuan / ton, 321 hot rolling 25400 yuan / ton; 316L hot rolling 32000 yuan / ton.

3、 Reference price of stainless steel pipe rod

1. Price: RMB ￠ [s365-0400] yuan / ton of Qingshan steel,; 316L material 29400 yuan / ton, TP321 material 23000 yuan / ton, 321 material 21800 yuan / ton. 304 raw pipe round steel price + 800316l raw pipe round steel price + 900321 raw pipe round steel price + 850.

2. [Guoqing special round steel ￠ 65-130 sealing plate] s22053 material 25100 yuan / ton, 310S material 40400 yuan / ton.

3. [Delong round steel ￠ 65-130] price: 19600 yuan / ton for s30400 material and 28200 yuan / ton for 316L material.

4. [Yongxing bar ￠ 65-130 tube blank sealing plate] 304 material 21300 yuan / ton, TP321 material 24500 yuan / ton, 316L material 32000 yuan / ton, 316gb material 35800 yuan / ton, s2205 material 30300 yuan / ton.

5. [Huaxin Lihua ￠ 65-130 sealing plate] s30400 material 22800 yuan / ton, 316ls material 32200 yuan / ton, 32107 material 25400 yuan / ton.

6. [UBS round steel ￠ 65-130 sealing plate] 17-4PH material 16500 yuan / ton, 347 material 24000 yuan / ton, 316Ti material 28300 yuan / ton, 1.4571 material 29500 yuan / ton, 317L material 33000 yuan / ton, s22053 material 25800 yuan / ton, s25073 material 33000 yuan / ton, F55 material 35500 yuan / ton, 310S material 41500 yuan / ton, 254SMO material 62000 yuan / ton, 904L material 62500 yuan / ton, 825 material 90000 yuan / ton, 400 material 180000 yuan / ton, 625 material 170000 yuan / ton, 800H material 65000 yuan / ton, 600 material 158000 yuan / ton.

7. [reference price of Zhejiang Benji pipe]

Stainless steel seamless pipe 30408 material, specification 25 * 2 * 6000 cold drawn pipe, pickling and weighing delivery - 33.6 yuan / kg;

Stainless steel seamless pipe s31603 material, specification 25 * 2 * 6000 cold drawn pipe, pickling and weighing delivery - 44.1 yuan / kg;

Stainless steel seamless pipe s32168 material, specification 25 * 2 * 6000 cold drawn pipe, pickling and weighing delivery - 36.8 yuan / kg;

Stainless steel welded pipe 30408 material, specification 219-813 * 4-6, pickling and weighing delivery - 28.6 yuan / kg;

Stainless steel welded pipe s31603 material, specification 219-813 * 4-6, pickling and weighing delivery - 40.6 yuan / kg;

Stainless steel welded pipe 32168 material, specification 219-813 * 4-6, pickling and weighing delivery - 33.8 yuan / kg;

4、 Market analysis

"The nickel industry carries the handle", some private institutions commented on Qingshan holdings. According to the companys disclosure, its nickel equivalent production will reach 600000 tons in 2021, 850000 tons in 2022 and 1.1 million tons in 2023.

According to the Research Report of Haitong Securities (10.340, -0.47, - 4.35%), Qingshan holding stainless steel market accounts for more than 1 / 3 According to wind statistics, the global output of stainless steel crude steel declined in 2020, but remained on the rise as a whole. In 2020, the total output of stainless steel crude steel in China was 30.139 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 2.51%, accounting for nearly 60% of the world. Among them, the output of stainless steel crude steel of Qingshan holdings reached 10.8 million tons, accounting for about 35.8% of the supply in the Chinese market.

Recently, the London Metal Exchange (LME) saw a sharp rise in nickel. It is rumored that the short nickel futures contract held by domestic Qingshan holding group was closed. According to the first financial report, Xiang Guangda, chairman of the board of directors of Qingshan industry, said on the afternoon of March 8: "foreigners do have some actions and are actively coordinating. Qingshan is an excellent Chinese enterprise with no problems in position and operation."

LME decided to "suspend nickel futures trading". After modifying the rules, the struggle turned into a protracted war, and Castle Peak just needed to move its position back. With the rule of LME, Castle Peak can be postponed. According to the LME structure last night, the price difference of c-october is $890, and the loss is not large.



If the nickel price is stable at a high level, the output of Qingshan Indonesia ferronickel is 600000 metal tons. Although Qingshan ferronickel and high matte nickel cannot be delivered by LME, the pricing of both are linked by LME, or they can be transferred to the production of deliverable nickel plates, which can be sold at a high price and make a huge profit. If the nickel price falls, Castle Peaks short losses will be reduced - obviously, it will be good for Castle Peak for a long time.



There are many ways for Castle Peak to make up for cash flow. For example, Castle Peak can recover funds by shipping stainless steel. As mentioned earlier, Castle Peak is a global stainless steel giant, with a domestic + Indonesian output of 14 million tons and a revenue of more than 350 billion; Moreover, the cost of Qingshan Indonesia ferronickel is only US $1000 / ton, the profit margin is expected to exceed 50%, and the annual profit is expected to be 180 billion. The futures loss is not a particularly big test for Qingshan. Even if it hurts the muscles and bones, it will not be fatal. Moreover, Castle Peak has many backhands such as mortgage assets.

What the market is most concerned about is whether the nickel price continues to rise?

The short-term trend is strong, which is still possible.

In terms of supply and demand, since the demand is relatively certain and there are few changing factors, any disturbance at the supply end can be regarded as beneficial. However, high nickel matte has been produced in succession, and there is no shortage in the medium term. At present, there is still a shortage of nickel, mainly because the shipment of high matte nickel in Qingshan Indonesia is still small, only 4K tons. With the subsequent release of production capacity, reaching 8K / 12K, it is expected that there will be a slight surplus in the nickel balance in the medium term (to the end of the year).

The agency expects that after this matter is resolved, LME nickel prices will usher in a correction and return to normal levels. The contract in March is likely to be delivered at a fixed price. The contract from April to may depends on the situation, and there is a chance of price decline.

At noon on March 9, Qingshan round steel opened. Qingshan faced the market with a responsible attitude, which is worthy of being the "shoulder" of the market.