1、 Raw material report:

1. Nickel: on March 17, the latest price of nickel in London was US $47829.2, up US $2239.2, or 4.91%. The latest price of Shanghai nickel was 219210 yuan, down 4130 yuan, or 1.85%. Domestic high-carbon ferrochrome fecr55c1000 (50 basis) made in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai is 9000 yuan / 50 basis ton, and that of Shanghai ferromolybdenum femo60 is 177300 yuan / ton.

2. Stainless steel continuous: the latest price was 19760 yuan, down 340 yuan, down 1.69%. The position is 39693 hands and the trading volume is 79080 hands.

3. Price of Dainan waste stainless steel

201ni ≈ 1-1.5%, 7650-7850 down 100304ni ≥ 8%; Primary material 13200-13400304ni ≈ 7.6-8%; Return material 12700-12900;

316 return charge 18250-18450316ni ≥ 10%; Grade I material 18750-18850316l, Ni ≥ 10%, Mo ≈ 2%, 18650-18850;

310S Ni=18-19% 22850-23050，430Cr≈16%-18%； Mn ≈ 1% - 2% 5850-6000431 return material 4300-4500.

2、 Wuxi stainless steel coil reference price

1. TISCO hot rolling guide price:

300 hot rolling series: 304 material 1800 rough edge 22200 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan; RMB 21400 / ton of 304 / No.1; 32500 yuan / ton of 321 / No.1; 31300 yuan / ton of 316L / No.1.

Medium plate (trimming, thickness: 14-20mm, width: 1500mm) 304 material - 23000 yuan / ton, 321 material 27200 yuan / ton, 316L material 33000 yuan / ton.

2. Dongte hot rolling guide price: 20300 yuan / ton for 304 material 4-12mm and 20500 yuan / ton for 14mm; 21000 yuan / ton for 16mm; 316L material: 30700 yuan / ton for 4-12mm and 31100 yuan / ton for 14mm; 16mm 31600 yuan / ton; 2205 hot rolled white coil 31000 yuan / ton.

3. Qingshan hot rolling: 304 material, 20000 yuan / ton;

4. Zhangpu guidance price;: 304 material 20500 yuan / ton, 321 hot rolling 24400 yuan / ton; 316L hot rolling 31000 yuan / ton.

3、 Reference price of stainless steel pipe rod

1. [Qingshan round steel ￠ 65-130] price s30400, material 19500 yuan / ton,; 316L material 28900 yuan / ton, TP321 material 21900 yuan / ton, 321 material 20700 yuan / ton. 304 raw pipe round steel price + 800316l raw pipe round steel price + 900321 raw pipe round steel price + 850.

2. [Guoqing special round steel ￠ 65-130] s22053 material 27700 yuan / ton, 310S material (sealing plate) 40400 yuan / ton.

3. [Delong round steel ￠ 65-130 sealing plate] the price is 20600 yuan / ton for s30400 material and 29200 yuan / ton for 316L material.

4. [Yongxing bar ￠ 65-130 tube blank sealing plate] 304 material 21300 yuan / ton, TP321 material 24500 yuan / ton, 316L material 32000 yuan / ton, 316gb material 35800 yuan / ton, s2205 material 30300 yuan / ton.

5. [Huaxin Lihua ￠ 65-130] s30400 material 22500 yuan / ton, 316ls material 32000 yuan / ton, 32107 material 25000 yuan / ton.

6. [UBS round steel ￠ 65-130 sealing plate] 17-4PH material 16500 yuan / ton, 347 material 24000 yuan / ton, 316Ti material 28000 yuan / ton, 1.4571 material 29500 yuan / ton, 317L material 33000 yuan / ton, s22053 material 25800 yuan / ton, s25073 material 32800 yuan / ton, F55 material 35500 yuan / ton, 310S material 41500 yuan / ton, 254SMO material 62000 yuan / ton, 904L material 62500 yuan / ton, 825 material 90000 yuan / ton, 400 material 180000 yuan / ton, 625 material 170000 yuan / ton, 718 material 150000 yuan / ton, 800H material 65000 yuan / ton, 600 material 158000 yuan / ton.

7. [reference price of Zhejiang Benji pipe]

Stainless steel seamless pipe 30408 material, specification 25 * 2 * 6000 cold drawn pipe, pickling and weighing delivery - 32.1 yuan / kg;

Stainless steel seamless pipe s31603 material, specification 25 * 2 * 6000 cold drawn pipe, pickling and weighing delivery - 43.8 yuan / kg;

Stainless steel seamless pipe s32168 material, specification 25 * 2 * 6000 cold drawn pipe, pickling and weighing delivery - 36 yuan / kg;

Stainless steel welded pipe 30408 material, specification 219-813 * 4-6, pickling and weighing delivery - 26.7 yuan / kg;

Stainless steel welded pipe s31603 material, specification 219-813 * 4-6, pickling and weighing delivery - 39.1 yuan / kg;

Stainless steel welded pipe 32168 material, specification 219-813 * 4-6, pickling and weighing delivery - 32.8 yuan / kg;

4、 Market analysis

The sharp rise and fall has just passed, which has brought a great impact to the spot and futures markets. When the huge wave strikes, the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain is basically in a semi stagnant state. Unexpectedly, there was another wave yesterday. The price of Shanghai stainless steel futures once climbed to 20908.8 yuan, a sharp rise of 1045 yuan. Just as everyone was ready to rest again, when they woke up, the stainless steel futures returned to 19760 yuan and fell back.

Financial Associated Press (Shanghai, editor Niu Zhanlin) - on Wednesday (March 16), local time, the London Metal Exchange (LME) issued a statement saying that the daily limit of nickel trading will be raised to 8%, and the daily limit of other base metals will be maintained at 15%. It will take effect on Thursday local time.

The sharp rise of nickel price and the crisis of closing positions may further lead to the dilemma of the whole nickel industry chain in the future. On the one hand, for Qingshan group, the largest enterprise among them, it means huge cash flow pressure. In addition to the hundreds of millions of dollars of margin urgently needed to be raised, Aoyama faces billions of dollars of potential losses on its short position in nickel futures. Although Qingshan group is experiencing an extremely rare crisis, several industry insiders told China Newsweek that this is not the impact of breaking muscles and bones. It is reported that the revenue of Qingshan holdings last year was US $19 billion. Even if it encounters short-term cash flow pressure, it is unlikely to collapse due to this event.

At the supply level, Indonesia also publicly expressed its production plan. On March 9, luhut panjaitan, Minister of investment and maritime affairs coordination of Indonesia, said in an interview that the country plans to add up to 400000 tons of metal nickel this year to make the total output reach 1.4 million tons, so as to alleviate market pressure.

At present, the spot market of electrolytic nickel has stagnated and accumulated reserves; The stainless steel industry chain is deadlocked, and there is no transaction in the market; Battery material industry, a small amount of quotation, no transaction, downstream orders are suspended, and the existing orders are still in normal performance; Electroplating, alloy and other fields, stop production, reduce production, do not purchase or receive orders. Many insiders admitted that the disorderly fluctuation of nickel price has seriously disturbed the normal order of production and operation of the industrial chain. It is the wish of enterprises in the industrial chain to calm down as soon as possible. "At present, the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain are basically in a semi stagnant state".

As of press time, "China Newsweek" has not received a reply from Qingshan holdings on the interview. "At present, it is difficult for Castle Peak to retreat and may bear some losses, but it will not be as much as the rumored $8 billion in the market." Yang Han believes that, on the other hand, if you buy back a lot of nickel plates at a high price of more than 50000 US dollars per ton, such a loss can not be borne by the long counterparty. "Castle Peak and the long counterparty have a high probability of closing their positions at the agreed price, and the key is the agreed price."

Michael Widmer, head of metals research at Bank of America, said by telephone in London:

Many regular market participants may be wary of diving. Some brokers said they were reluctant to take new short positions in view of the huge margin calls last week. Some hedge fund managers, including market veterans, said they would either leave or significantly reduce trading.

To be sure, if Qingshan holding group company quickly covers its short position, or other bullish investors flood into the market, the nickel price may rise again. However, during the one week suspension of trading of lunni contract, the financial market fell sharply. It is not ruled out that lunni followed the sharp decline trend of the market after reopening.

Everbright futures pointed out that the high probability of LME nickel will weaken after the opening, but there are still various possibilities after that. Therefore, before the Qingshan incident subsides, domestic investors should wait and see its changes and guard against risks.