1、 Raw material report:

1. Nickel: on July 6, the three-month closing price of London nickel was US $21849, down US $803, or 3.54%. Shanghai nickels latest consecutive price was 164300 yuan, up 4100 yuan, or 0.25%. Shanghai made high carbon ferrochromium fecr55c1000 (50 basis) 9000 yuan /50 basis tons. 175000 yuan / ton of Shanghai ferromolybdenum femo60.

2. Continuous stainless steel: the latest price is 16615 yuan, up 85 yuan, or 0.51%. The position is 40885 hands, and the trading volume is 61143 hands.

3. Dainan waste stainless steel price

201 old pipe 4800-5000304 industrial 11800-12000304 new material 12000-12100304 shavings 11300-11400;

316 shavings 17500-17700316 large furnaces 18300-18500310 clinker 29800-30000;

430 film free 4500-4700431 returned material 4000-4200

2、 Reference price of Wuxi stainless steel coil

1. TISCO hot rolling guide price:

300 hot rolling series: 19300 yuan / ton of 304/no.1; 321/ 23300 yuan / ton of No.1; 29100 yuan / ton of 316l/no.1.

Medium plate (trim, thickness: 14-20mm, width: 1500mm) 304 material - 22600 yuan / ton, 321 material 28800 yuan / ton, 316L material 33800 yuan / ton.

2. Dongte hot rolling guide price: 17000 yuan / ton for 304 material 4-12mm, 17200 yuan / ton for 14mm; 16mm 17700 yuan / ton; 316L material: 27400 yuan / ton for 4-12mm, 27800 yuan / ton for 14mm; 28300 yuan / ton for 16mm;

3. Jiuquan Iron and steel 2205 hot rolling 31000 yuan / ton, dongte 2205 hot rolling 27500 yuan / ton.

4. Qingshan hot rolling: 304 material 16800 yuan / ton;

5. Zhangpu guidance price;: 304 material 17800 yuan / ton, 321 hot rolling 21500 yuan / ton; 316L hot rolling 28000 yuan / ton.

3、 Reference price of stainless steel tube and rod

1. [June futures price of Qingshan round steel ￠ 65-130] price s30400 material 16100 yuan / ton,; 316L material 25200 yuan / ton, TP321 material 18700 yuan / ton, 321 material 17500 yuan / ton, s22053 material (electrical connection) 26300 yuan / ton, 310S material (electrical connection) 45200 yuan / ton. 304 raw pipe round steel price +800316l raw pipe round steel price +900321 raw pipe round steel price +850.

2. [Delong round steel ￠ 65-130] price s30400 material 15800 yuan / ton, 316L material 24900 yuan / ton.

3. [Yongxing bar ￠ 65-130] 304 material 19800 yuan / ton, TP321 material 23100 yuan / ton, 316L material 31000 yuan / ton, 316gb material 35000 yuan / ton, s22053 material 31000 yuan / ton.

4. [Huaxin Lihua ￠ 65-130] s30400 material 21000 yuan / ton, 316ls material 31100 yuan / ton, 32107 material 23400 yuan / ton.

5. [reference price of Zhejiang Benji pipe]

Stainless steel seamless pipe 30408 material, specification 25*2*6000 cold drawn pipe pickling weighing delivery - 28.4 yuan /kg;

Stainless steel seamless pipe s31603 material, specification 25*2*6000 cold drawn pipe pickling weighing delivery - 39.8 yuan /kg;

Stainless steel seamless pipe s32168 material, specification 25*2*6000 cold drawn pipe pickling weighing delivery - 32.2 yuan /kg;

Stainless steel welded pipe 30408 material, specification 219-813*4-6 pickling and weighing delivery - 23.4 yuan /kg;

Stainless steel welded pipe s31603 material, specification 219-813*4-6 pickling and weighing delivery - 35.8 yuan /kg;

Stainless steel welded pipe 32168 material, specification 219-813*4-6 pickling and weighing delivery - 30.4 yuan /kg;

4、 Statistical data

According to Mysteel research:

By the end of June 2022, the inventory of 15 domestic mainstream stainless steel plants was 1.0855 million tons, with a month on month decrease of 3.92% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.17%. The epidemic situation in East China and other regions improved in June, and the demand for resumption of work in some downstream areas involved slightly improved compared with that in May. In addition, the domestic stainless steel factory received poor orders for finished products in June, and the production efficiency was poor. There was a significant reduction in production. The market had digested some inventory, and the stainless steel factory warehouse and social warehouse showed a downward trend in varying degrees. Of which:

200 series 367300 tons, with a month on month decrease of 8.59% and a year-on-year decrease of 16.71%;

300 series 477900 tons, with a month on month decrease of 1.36% and a year-on-year decrease of 13.89%;

400 is 240300 tons, with a month on month decrease of 1.31% and a year-on-year increase of 38.58%.

5、 Market analysis

The PMI data of new manufacturing orders in the United States and the euro zone decreased significantly in June, and the fear of economic recession further intensified; The Federal Reserve is expected to continue its aggressive interest rate hike, with the dollar index rising and liquidity tightening; Recently, the emergence of the second-generation mutation of Omicron may bring a new epidemic, and the market risk sentiment is frustrated.

The import volume of nickel ore has increased significantly, the supply of raw materials is guaranteed, and the import of nickel and iron from Indonesia has also continued to hit a new high. In addition, the production scheduling plan of domestic steel mills in July has decreased by nearly 8% month on month. The supply of nickel is becoming loose, but we need to pay attention to the extremely low nickel inventory at home and abroad.

The short-term supply and demand of 304 stainless steel are both weak. The loss of the steel plant leads to the decline of output, while the consumption is weak in the continuous decline of prices, and the overall supply and demand performance is poor. However, the social inventory has fallen for five weeks in the continuous decline of prices, and has now fallen to the midstream level. Moreover, under the current price, almost all stainless steel plants and domestic ferronickel plants are in a state of loss, and it is difficult for the mining end to continue to make profits. The short-term price has fallen to the support level of industrial cost, and the industrial supply and demand support will be gradually obtained below, which should not be overly pessimistic. However, the short-term macro sentiment is still pessimistic, and prices may still be weak and volatile until the peripheral sentiment improves.

Focus of stainless steel market in the second half of 2022:

1. Stainless steel raw material end cost changes.

2. The market demand is improved, the field is expanded, and the sales volume changes.

3. Stainless steel China India capacity release rhythm changes.

4. Stainless steel inventory reduction rhythm, as well as futures warehouse receipt changes.

5. The import and export of stainless steel have changed as a whole.

It is expected that stainless steel will continue to show wide fluctuations, and the overall center of gravity is expected to move lower than that in the first half of 2022, and the high point may be more difficult to exceed the high point in the first half of the year. The main fluctuation range of stainless steel futures is expected to be 14000-20000 yuan / ton. From the perspective of the industry, the stainless steel profit may be maintained at a relatively weak level due to the joint impact of changes in raw material value and supply changes, but the continuous decline in production scheduling and the expected improvement in demand may also slow down the downward rhythm.