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Powells strong anti inflation "scared" the US stock market, and the loss of steel mills may become a new normal
Postdate:2022-08-27 Views:1995
1、 Raw material report:

1. Nickel: on August 26, the three-month closing price of London nickel was 21633 US dollars, down 44 US dollars, down 0.21%. The latest price of Shanghai nickel was 171600 yuan, down 2110 yuan, down 1.21%. Shanghai high carbon ferrochromium fecr55c1000 (50 basis) 7800 yuan / 50 basis tons. 165000 yuan / ton of Luoyang ferromolybdenum femo60.

2. Stainless steel continuous: the latest price is 15420 yuan, up 105 yuan, or 0.69%. The position was 67008 and the trading volume was 40998.

3. Danan waste stainless steel price

201 old pipe 5000-5100304 industrial 11700-11800304 new material 11800-11900304 particle10800-10900;

316 shaving 16600-16800316 large furnace 17600-17800310 clinker 29800-30000;

430 no film 4400-4600431 return material 3850-4050

2、 Reference price of Wuxi stainless steel plate coil

1. TISCO hot rolling guide price:

300 hot rolling series: 304 / No 17500 yuan / ton for 1; RMB 21400 / T for 321 / No.1; 26500 yuan / ton for 316L / No.1.

Medium plate (trimming, thickness: 14-20mm, width: 1500mm) 304 material - 20200 yuan / ton, 321 material: 26400 yuan / ton, 316L material: 30100 yuan / ton.

2. Dongte hot rolling guide price: 15500 yuan / ton for 304 material 4-12mm, 15700 yuan / ton for 14mm; 16200 yuan / ton for 16mm; 316L material: 24700 yuan / ton for 4-12mm and 25100 yuan / ton for 14mm; 16mm 25600 yuan / ton;

3. Jiuquan Iron and steel 2205 hot rolling is 28500 yuan / ton, and dongte 2205 hot rolling is 26000 yuan / ton.

4. Qingshan hot rolling: 304 material 15400 yuan / ton;

5. Zhangpus guiding price: 304 material 16500 yuan / ton, 321 hot rolling 19500 yuan / ton; 316L hot rolling 25400 yuan / ton.

3、 Reference price of stainless steel pipe rod

1. [September futures price of Qingshan round steel ¢ 65-130] price: s30400 material: 15400 yuan / ton,; 316L material 24300 yuan / ton, TP321 material 17900 yuan / ton, 321 material 16700 yuan / ton, s22053 material (ITU) 24000 yuan / ton, 310S material (ITU) 40300 yuan / ton. 304 raw pipe round steel price + 800316l raw pipe round steel price + 900321 raw pipe round steel price + 850.

2. [Delong round steel ¢ 65-130] price s30400 material 15200 yuan / ton, 316L material 24000 yuan / ton.

3. [Yongxing bar ¢ 65-130] 304 material 18800 yuan / ton, TP321 material 21500 yuan / ton, 316L material 29000 yuan / ton, 316gb material 32800 yuan / ton, s22053 material 29000 yuan / ton.

4. [Huaxin Lihua ¢ 65-130] s30400 material is 19000 yuan / ton, 316ls material is 27600 yuan / ton, and 32107 material is 21200 yuan / ton.

5. [Guoqing round steel ¢ 65-130] s22053 material electric negotiation 24000 yuan / ton, s31008 material electric negotiation 40300 yuan / ton.

6. [Zhejiang Benji pipe reference price]

Stainless steel seamless pipe 30408 material, specification 25 * 2 * 6000 cold drawn pipe, pickling and weighing delivery - 28.5 yuan / kg;

Stainless steel seamless pipe s31603 material, specification 25 * 2 * 6000 cold drawn pipe, pickling and weighing delivery - 39 yuan / kg;

Stainless steel seamless pipe s32168 material, specification 25 * 2 * 6000 cold drawn pipe, pickling and weighing delivery - 32.2 yuan / kg;

Stainless steel welded pipe 30408 material, specification 219-813 * 4-6 pickling and weighing delivery - 21.9 yuan / kg;

Stainless steel welded pipe s31603 material, specification 219-813 * 4-6 pickling and weighing delivery - 33 yuan / kg;

Stainless steel welded pipe 32168 material, specification 219-813 * 4-6 pickling and weighing delivery - 29.4 yuan / kg.



4、 Statistics

According to Mysteel research and Statistics:

On August 25, 2022, the social inventory of stainless steel in the national mainstream market was 877302 tons, 4048 tons less than last week, a decrease of 0.46%, including:

The total inventory of cold-rolled stainless steel was 390227 tons, a decrease of 18877 tons over the previous week, a decrease of 4.61%;

The total inventory of hot rolled stainless steel was 487075 tons, an increase of 14829 tons over the previous week, an increase of 3.14%;

The total inventory of 200 series is 121862 tons, a decrease of 538 tons over the previous week, a decrease of 0.44%;

The total inventory of 300 series was 439377 tons, a decrease of 17353 tons or 3.80% over the previous week;

The total inventory of 400 series is 316063 tons, an increase of 13843 tons over the previous week, an increase of 4.58%.

Wuxis inventory was 476414 tons, an increase of 739 tons over the previous week, an increase of 0.16%.

Foshans inventory was 140644 tons, 11218 tons less than last week, a decrease of 7.39%.

The inventory of Zibo, Jieyang, Shenyang and Xian was 260244 tons, an increase of 6434 tons over the previous week, an increase of 2.53%.



5、 Market analysis

US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell: we will continue to take measures to "forcefully" combat inflation. On August 26, local time, US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered a speech at the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole, saying that the United States would continue to take measures to "forcefully" combat inflation, but at the same time warned that the forceful interest rate increase measures would bring "pain" to American families and enterprises. Although the organizer arranged a half-hour speech time, Powell only spent about eight minutes on his speech, which broke the mood of the US stock market since June.

At present, the positive and negative factors of nickel price are very clear. The market is in a wait-and-see stage, and the whole August is basically in a state of range fluctuation. If Indonesias tariff falls ahead of schedule, nickel price will have a pulse rise, and then may usher in a downward trend. In terms of stainless steel, the real estate is currently in the process of structural adjustment, with strong uncertainty. The recent price is supported by certain costs, but the overall situation remains weak.

Han Weidong, vice president of Youfa steel pipe group, said that at present, the steel industry has entered a new era. It will become normal for steel mills to suffer losses and steel prices to fluctuate greatly.

The first change is that the primary problem faced in the new stage is excess steel production.

The second change is the continuous decline in demand.

The third change is the excessive financialization of the steel industry. In the past, the steel industry was living its own life, and it was doing very well. But now such days are gone forever. Now those who have capital want to make a profit from it, even those who do stocks also want to use it as a hedge.

Han Weidong said that after these changes in the steel market, several major features will be formed.

First of all, the loss of steel mills will become the normal, because there is too much excess output, and the loss will become the normal for a period of time before the industry solves its own problems.

The second characteristic is that the market fluctuates greatly. Since the beginning of last year, the steel market has experienced three plummets, and such a large fluctuation is particularly harmful to the industry. Because any industry wants to develop healthily, it must have a relatively stable market. Especially in the steel industry, at present, the profit per ton of steel is only a few tens of yuan. Such a large shock will have a great impact on steel mills and steel traders.

Han Weidong said that under the great changes in the market, "surviving" will become the primary goal of iron and steel enterprises. We can achieve this by continuously innovating the business model and cooperating with enterprises with good reputation and strong strength.
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