1、 Raw material report:

1. Nickel: On January 3, the three-month closing price of nickel in London was 31118 US dollars, up 1070 US dollars, or 3.56%. The latest price of nickel in Shanghai was 229420 yuan, up 2290 yuan, or 1.01%. Shanghai high carbon ferrochrome FeCr55C1000 (50 basis) was 8900 yuan/50 basis tons, up 100 yuan, or 6.02%. Luoyang ferromolybdenum FeMo60 was 297000 yuan/ton, up 29000 yuan or 10.82%.

2. Stainless steel: The latest price on the 17th was 16940 yuan, up 280 yuan or 1.68%. The position volume was 60433, and the trading volume was 93915.

3. Price of Dainan waste stainless steel

201 Old pipe 5350-5450; 304 Industrial 12400-12600304 New material 12600-12700304 Shavings 11300-11500.

316 shavings 19900-20000; 316 large furnace 21500-21600; 310 Clinker 30200-30400;

430 filmless 4500-4600431 recycled material 3850-4050

2、 Reference price of Wuxi stainless steel coil

1. Hot rolling guide price of TISCO:

300 hot rolling series: 18,100 yuan/ton for 304/NO.1; 21300 yuan/ton for 321/NO.1; 31,000 yuan/ton for 316L/NO.1.

Medium plate (trimming, thickness: 14-20mm, width: 1500mm) 304 material - 20400 yuan/ton, 321 material 26900 yuan/ton, 316L material 32900 yuan/ton.

2. The guide price of Dongte hot rolling: 16900 yuan/ton for materials of 304 4-12mm, 17100 yuan/ton for materials of 14mm; 17600 yuan/ton for 16mm; S31603 material: 30500 yuan/ton for 4-12mm, 30900 yuan/ton for 14mm; 31400 yuan/ton for 16mm;

3. Jiuquan Steel 2205 hot rolling 30700 yuan/ton; Dongte 2205 hot rolling is 30700 yuan/ton.

4. Qingshan hot rolling: 304 material 16800 yuan/ton;

5. Guiding price of Zhangpu 17600 yuan/ton for 304 material, 20200 yuan/ton for 321 hot rolling; 316L hot rolling 30400 yuan/ton.

3、 Reference price of stainless steel tube and bar

1. [January futures price of Qingshan round steel ￠ 65-130] The price is 17100 yuan/ton for S30400 materials, 29700 yuan/ton for 316L materials, 19700 yuan/ton for TP321 materials, and 18500 yuan/ton for 321 materials. 304 round steel price of raw pipe+800316L round steel price of raw pipe+900321 round steel price of raw pipe+850.

2. [Delong round steel ￠ 65-130] The price is 17000 yuan/ton for S30400 material and 26600 yuan/ton for 316L material.

3. [Yongxing rod ￠ 65-130] 304 material 19300 yuan/ton, TP321 material 22100 yuan/ton, 316L material 32000 yuan/ton, 316GB material 36200 yuan/ton, S22053 material 32500 yuan/ton.

4. [Huaxin Lihua ￠ 65-130] S30400 material is 20300 yuan/ton, 316LS material is 32700 yuan/ton, 32107 material is 22500 yuan/ton.

5. [Jiangyin Hanzhou ￠ 65-130 Fukai Material] 2205/F60 material 28,500 yuan/ton, 2507 material/F53 material 37,000 yuan/ton, 630/17-4PH material 18,500 yuan/ton,

6. [Reference price of Zhejiang Benji pipes]

Stainless steel seamless pipe 30408 material, specification 25 * 2 * 6000 cold drawn pipe, pickled and weighed delivery - 30.2 yuan/kg;

Stainless steel seamless tube S31603, specification 25 * 2 * 6000, cold drawn tube, pickled, weighed and delivered -- 45.2 yuan/kg;

Stainless steel seamless tube S32168 material, specification 25 * 2 * 6000 cold drawn tube, acid pickling, weighing delivery - 32.9 yuan/kg;

Stainless steel welded pipe 30408 material, specification 219-813 * 4-6, acid pickling, weighing delivery - 23.4 yuan/kg;

Stainless steel welded pipe S31603, specification 219-813 * 4-6, acid pickling, weighing delivery - 38.9 yuan/kg;

Stainless steel welded pipe 32168, specification 219-813 * 4-6, acid pickling, weighing delivery - 30.6 yuan/kg.



4、 Statistics

According to Mysteel research statistics:

On December 29, 2022, the social inventory of stainless steel in the national mainstream market will be 921215 tons, an increase of 36210 tons over the previous week, or 4.09%, of which:

The total inventory of cold rolled stainless steel was 541308 tons, an increase of 37334 tons or 7.41% over the previous week;

The total stock of hot rolled stainless steel is 379907 tons, 1124 tons less than last week, or 1.12% less;

The total inventory of the 200 series was 195615 tons, 15149 tons more than last week, an increase of 8.39%;

The total inventory of 300 series is 556597 tons, an increase of 24783 tons over the previous week, or 4.66%;

The total inventory of 400 series is 169003 tons, a decrease of 3722 tons or 2.15% compared with last week.

Wuxis inventory was 453772 tons, an increase of 10815 tons or 2.44% over the previous week.

The inventory in Foshan was 324788 tons, an increase of 26095 tons over the previous week, or 8.74%.

The inventory of Zibo, Jieyang, Shenyang and Xian was 142,655 tons, 700 tons less than last week, a decrease of 0.492%.

5、 Market analysis

The excess capacity of stainless steel presses the upper space, and the production cost forms the lower support. The industry is highly concentrated in the middle and upper reaches, and the leading enterprises have a strong voice. When there is no vicious competition in the industry, the demand state basically determines the supply level. The steel mill will adjust the output according to the actual order and its own profit and loss. The game behavior of the industrial chain is obvious.

In 2022, Chinas economy will face triple pressures of "demand contraction, supply shock and expected weakening". Repeated epidemics and real estate downturn will restrict the upward recovery of the economy. In the context of overseas interest rate hikes and deepening trade barriers, exports will be under pressure. In 2022, Chinas apparent consumption of stainless steel is expected to be 25.3 million tons, down 3.1% year on year. According to ISSF data, the per capita apparent consumption of stainless steel in China in 2021 will be 19.76 kg, which is higher than that in Japan and Germany, but there is still a large gap with the per capita consumption of about 34 kg in Italy and South Korea, which has consumption potential.



Looking forward to 2023, the annual economic growth target is set at around 5%, and the recovery of real estate and demand in the post epidemic era will bring endogenous power to stainless steel consumption.

Export faces downward pressure

In the first half of 2022, due to the rising price of overseas stainless steel, Chinas stainless steel exports performed well. However, in the second half of the year, under the channel of overseas interest rate increase, foreign demand declined and exports fell back. In the first 11 months of this year, the cumulative volume of domestic stainless steel exports was about 4160700 tons, an increase of 147000 tons or 3.66% year on year.

Indonesias capacity expansion squeezed Chinas stainless steel export share. In addition, the latest growth forecast of IMF World Economic Outlook shows that the global GDP growth rate in 2023 will be 2.7%, lower than the previous 3.2%. Among them, the United States is 1.0%, lower than the previous value of 2.4%; Eurozone 0.5%, lower than the previous value of 3.1%; Chinas 4.4% is higher than the previous 3.2%. Overseas economies are facing downward impact, European and American economies are facing recession pressure, and exports are expected to weaken.