Baltic index plummeted by 40%, and the downward space of stainless steel futures price is limited-Zhejiang Benji Stainless Steel Co., Ltd

1、 Raw material report:

1. Nickel: The three-month closing price of nickel in London on February 20 was $25955, up 380, or 1.49%. The latest continuous price of nickel in Shanghai was $210150, up 8030, or 3.97%. Shanghai high-carbon ferrochrome FeCr55C1000 (50 base) 9500 yuan/50 base tons. 363000 yuan/ton of Luoyang ferromolybdenum FeMo60.

2. Continuous: the latest price of stainless steel on the 21st was 16790 yuan, up 265 yuan, or 1.60%. The position was 48431 and the trading volume was 40173.

3. Price of Dainan waste stainless steel

201 old pipe 5450-5550; 304 industrial 12200-12400304 new material 12500-1600304 particle 11700-11800.

316 particle 21400-21600; 316 furnace 23300-23500; 310 Clinker 29000-30000;

430 filmless 4550-4650431 return material 3950-4050

2、 Reference price of Wuxi stainless steel coil

1. Guide price for hot rolling of TISCO:

300 hot rolling series: 18200 yuan/ton of 304/NO.1; 21500 yuan/ton of 321/NO.1; 34100 yuan/ton of 316L/NO.1.

Medium plate (trimming, thickness: 14-20mm, width: 1500mm) 304 material - 20800 yuan/ton, 321 material 26900 yuan/ton, 316L material 36500 yuan/ton.

2. Dongte hot rolling guide price: 16700 yuan/ton for 304 material 4-12mm, 16900 yuan/ton for 14mm; 17400 yuan/ton for 16mm; S31603 material: 32700 yuan/ton for 4-12mm, 33100 yuan/ton for 14mm; 33600 yuan/ton for 16mm;

3. Jiuquan Iron and Steel 2205 hot rolled 34600 yuan/ton; Dongte 2205 hot rolling is 34200 yuan/ton.

4. Qingshan hot rolling: 304 material 16700 yuan/ton;

5. Zhangpu guidance price 304 material 17700 yuan/ton, 321 hot rolled 20300 yuan/ton; 316L hot rolling 33500 yuan/ton.

3、 Reference price of stainless steel tube and rod

1. [Qingshan round steel price ￠ 65-130] The price of S30400 material is 16700 yuan/ton, 316L material is 30800 yuan/ton, TP321 material is 19500 yuan/ton, 321 material is 18400 yuan/ton. 304 raw pipe round steel price+900316L raw pipe round steel price+1000321 raw pipe round steel price+900.

2. [Delong round steel ￠ 65-130] S30400 material 16700 yuan/ton, 316L material 30600 yuan/ton.

3. [Yongxing Bar ￠ 65-130] 304 material 20300 yuan/ton, TP321 material 23300 yuan/ton, 316L material 37300 yuan/ton, 316GB material 41800 yuan/ton, S22053 material 40000 yuan/ton.

4. [Huaxin Lihua ￠ 65-130] S30400 material 20300 yuan/ton, 316LS material 37000 yuan/ton, 32107 material 22500 yuan/ton.

5. [Fukai round steel market price] ￠ 65-130:2205/F60 material 35000 yuan/ton, material inquiry yuan/ton, 2507 material/F53 material sealing yuan/ton, 630/17-4PH material 18500 yuan/ton. Wuxi Puhengjia 304L material ￠ 140-250, 19400 yuan/ton, ￠ 260-400, 19600 yuan/ton; 316L material: 33000 yuan/ton for ￠ 140-250, 33200 yuan/ton for ￠ 260-400.

6. [Reference price of Zhejiang Penji pipes]

Stainless steel seamless pipe 30408 material, specification 25 * 2 * 6000 cold-drawn pipe, pickling and weighing delivery - 29.6 yuan/kg;

Stainless steel seamless pipe S31603, specification 25 * 2 * 6000, cold-drawn pipe, pickled, weighed and delivered - 46.9 yuan/kg;

Stainless steel seamless pipe S32168 material, specification 25 * 2 * 6000 cold-drawn pipe, pickled and delivered by weight - 33.5 yuan/kg;

Stainless steel welded pipe 30408 material, specification 219-813 * 4-6, pickling and weighing delivery - 23.1 yuan/kg;

Stainless steel welded pipe S31603 material, specification 219-813 * 4-6, pickling and weighing delivery - 41.1 yuan/kg;

Stainless steel welded pipe 32168 material, specification 219-813 * 4-6, pickling and weighing delivery - 29.7 yuan/kg.

4、 Statistics

According to Mysteel survey:

On February 16, 2023, the social inventory of stainless steel in the national mainstream market was 1400518 tons, an increase of 12919 tons or 0.93% over the previous week, including:

The total inventory of cold-rolled stainless steel was 810393 tons, an increase of 13100 tons or 1.28% over the previous week;

The total inventory of hot-rolled stainless steel was 590125 tons, down 181 tons or 0.03% from last week;

The total inventory of the 200 series was 289555 tons, a decrease of 5342 tons or 1.81% over the previous week;

The total inventory of 300 series was 871533 tons, an increase of 12978 tons or 1.51% over the previous week;

The total inventory of 400 series was 239430 tons, an increase of 5283 tons or 2.26% over the previous week.

Wuxis inventory was 724986 tons, an increase of 11686 tons or 1.61% over the previous week.

Foshans inventory was 492975 tons, down 8296 tons or 1.65% from last week.

The inventory of Zibo, Jieyang, Shenyang and Xian was 182577 tons, an increase of 9529 tons or 5.51% over the previous week.

5、 Market analysis

Since this year, the Baltic Dry Bulk Index, an important indicator of the global shipping market, has fallen by more than 40%. Compared with the post-epidemic high set in October 2021, the withdrawal rate has been close to 90%. As an important wind vane, the prosperity of the marine market is closely related to the fluctuations of the world economy. Recently, the World Bank released a report predicting that the global economic growth rate will further decline this year, which is only better than the shutdown of COVID-19 in 2020 and the financial crisis in 2009 in the past 30 years.

At the same time, the new transport capacity will further intensify market competition. Due to the hot maritime market last year, major shipyards around the world have received a large number of orders and orders, and new ships will be delivered in succession from this year. Clarksons Shipping predicts that the growth rate of global dry bulk shipping trade volume will be 1.3% and the growth rate of fleet capacity will be 1.8% in 2023. In addition to dry bulk cargo, container cargo also faces difficulties. The Freightos Baltic freight index, which measures the real-time cost of global container freight rates, has dropped from a high of $11100/TEU in 2021 to $2000/TEU, with a decline of 82%.

At present, nickel is still in the contradiction between the negative situation of the middle line and the low inventory situation. In the later stage, both pure nickel and nickel intermediate products have a large increase. The supply and demand of refined nickel may turn into surplus, and the middle line is expected to be short.

At present, stainless steel is in a pattern of high inventory, low profit, weak reality and strong expectations. In the first ten days of February, the price of stainless steel futures continued to fall, and to a certain extent, it has realized the high inventory short, and the later inventory may gradually decline; At the current price, the steel mills profit is in a loss state, which has a certain inhibition on supply; Although the current consumption performance is still flat, most of the lower reaches are in a low inventory state, and the future consumption is expected to be good; The price of stainless steel futures will continue to decline with limited space, which may be bottomed out in the short term or shocks. The future market will be treated with the idea of bargain hunting. However, as the stainless steel inventory is still at a high level, it may be difficult to have a smooth rise in the short-term price, or it may only show a shock rebound, so it is not appropriate to excessively chase up.

Zhejiang Benji Stainless Steel Co., Ltd.,