I. Raw material report:
1. Nickel: On March 6, London nickel closed at 24,430 dollars in three months, down 167 dollars, down 0.68%, Shanghai nickel continuous latest price 189,720 yuan, up 260 yuan, up 0.14%. Shanghai high carbon ferrochrome FeCr55C1000(50 base) 9500 yuan /50 base ton. Luoyang ferro molybdenum FeMo60 of 320000 yuan/ton, down 7000 yuan.
2, continuous stainless steel: 25 the latest price of 16265 yuan, down 75 yuan, down 0.46%; Open position was 67,042 lots, while volume was 28,996 lots.
3, Dayan waste stainless steel price
201 Old pipe 5450-5550; 304 Industrial 120-12100, 304 new material 12100-12200, 304 Shavings 11500-11600.
316 Shavings 20800-20900; 316 Big Furnace 22600-22800; 310 Clinker 29000-30000;
430 No film 4550-4650, 431 return charge 3950-4050
Two, Wuxi stainless steel plate roll reference price
1. Tisco hot rolling guide price:
300 hot rolling series: 304/NO.1 of 17900 yuan/ton; 21000 yuan/ton for 321/ NO.1; 32,800 yuan/ton for 316L/NO.1.
Medium plate (cut edge, thickness: 14-20mm, width: 1500mm) 304 material -- 20,400 yuan/ton, 321 material 26400 yuan/ton, 316L material 35,900 yuan/ton.
2, Dongte hot rolling guide price: 304 material 4-12mm 16500 yuan/ton, 14mm 16700 yuan/ton; 16mm 17200 yuan/ton; S31603 is 31,700 yuan/ton for 4-12mm and 32,100 yuan/ton for 14mm. 16mm 32600 yuan/ton;
3, Jiusteel 2205 hot rolling 33500 yuan/ton; Dongte 2205 hot rolled 33100 yuan/ton.
4, green Mountain hot rolling: 304 material 16,400 yuan/ton;
5, Zhangpu guide price: 304 material 17,500 yuan/ton, 321 hot rolling 20,300 yuan/ton; 316L hot rolled 32800 yuan/ton.
Three, stainless steel pipe rod reference price
1, [Castle Peak round steel price ￠65-130] price S30400 material 16500 yuan/ton, 316L material 29900 yuan/ton, TP321 material 19600 yuan/ton, 321 material 18400 yuan/ton. The price of 304 round steel is +900, the price of 316L series round steel is +1000, and the price of 321 series round steel is +900.
2, [Delong ￠65-130] S30400 material 16500 yuan/ton, 316L material 30400 yuan/ton.
3, [Yongxing bar ￠65-130] 304 material 20300 yuan/ton, TP321 material 23300 yuan/ton, 316L material 37300 yuan/ton, 316LGB material 41800 yuan/ton, S22053 material 40000 yuan/ton.
4, [Huaxin Lihua ￠65-130] S30400 material 20300 yuan/ton, 316LS material 37000 yuan/ton, 32107 material 22,500 yuan/ton.
5, [Fukai round steel market price] ￠65-130: Jiangyin Hanzhou 2205/F60 material 35,000 yuan/ton, 2507 material /F53 material 42000 yuan/ton, 630/17-4PH material 19500 yuan/ton. Wuxi Puheng Home 304L material - 18500 yuan/ton of 140-250, ￠260-400 18700 yuan/ton; 316L material - 31500 yuan/ton of 140-250, ￠260-400 of 31700 yuan/ton.
6. [Zhejiang Benji Pipe reference Price]
Stainless steel seamless pipe 30408 material, specifications 25*2*6000 cold drawn pipe pickling delivery by pound - 28.8 yuan /kg;
Stainless steel seamless tube S31603 material, specification 25*2*6000 cold drawn pipe pickling delivery by pound - 45.9 yuan /kg;
Stainless steel seamless pipe S32168 material, specifications 25*2*6000 cold drawn pipe pickling delivery - 33.1 yuan /kg;
Stainless steel welded pipe 30408 material, specification 219-813*4-6 pickling pound delivery -- 22.9 yuan /kg;
Stainless steel welded pipe S31603 material, specification 219-813*4-6 pickling delivery pound - 40.1 yuan /kg;
Stainless steel welded pipe 32168 material, specification 219-813*4-6 pickling delivery pound - 29.7 yuan /kg.
Iv. Statistical Data According to Mysteel research statistics:
On March 2, 2023, the national mainstream market stainless steel social inventory of 1,399,310 tons, 11293 tons less than last week, a reduction of 0.80%, including:
Cold-rolled stainless steel inventory of 841,360 tons, an increase of 21,099 tons, 2.57%;
Hot rolled stainless steel inventory of 557,950 tons, 32,392 tons less than last week, a decrease of 5.49%;
The total inventory of 200 series is 306,911 tons, 3032 tons less than last week, a decrease of 0.98%;
The total inventory of 300 series is 851,685 tons, 15395 tons less than last week, a decrease of 1.78%;
The total inventory of 400 series was 240,714 tons, an increase of 7,134 tons over the previous week, an increase of 3.05%.
Wuxi inventory 751,177 tons, 4605 tons less than last week, a decrease of 0.61%.
Foshan inventory of 470,540 tons, 7458 tons less than last week, a decrease of 1.56%.
The inventory in Zibo, Jieyang, Shenyang and Xi an was 177,593 tons, an increase of 770 tons or 0.44% over the previous week.
Five, market analysis
In the medium term, the rainy season in the Philippines is coming to an end, and the raw material end is in seasonal decline, so the cost support is not solid. If the peak season is expected to let the market down again, the price breaks open downward space. The oversupply of ferro nickel in Indonesia has worsened as production in Indonesia has increased and production in Indonesia Delong has plunged. Domestic ferro nickel production in the case of profit, after the Spring Festival production increases, resulting in the overall ferro nickel will be in surplus situation. By the end of February, the shipment price of ferro nickel has dropped to 1320-1330 yuan/Ni, while ferro nickel costs are between 1280 yuan/Ni at home and 1100-1200 yuan/Ni in Indonesia. In March, the price of nickel iron is expected to fall to about 1250 yuan/nickel.
Overseas ferrochrome supply is highly uncertain, with rising electricity prices in South Africa and Zimbabwe, which account for 60 per cent of Chinas imports, increasing pressure to cut production. Ferrochrome imports are expected to continue to be negatively affected by the earthquake in Turkey, which led to the suspension of ferrochrome exports from Turkey and the reduction of distribution of bulk orders from China by Kazakhstan. However, it is understood that the domestic high carbon ferrochrome spot is not a shortage, but traders do not want to premature shipment. Qingshan March high carbon ferrochrome bidding price 9395 yuan /50 basis, up 250 yuan month-on-month, boosting market confidence. High - carbon chromium iron is stronger than high - nickel iron.
Stainless steel market is currently facing the biggest explicit pressure is high inventory, but the greater potential pressure is still expanding high capacity, steel mill profit in which to play a role of adjustment, the three intertwined, the stainless steel dilemma. Raw material prices once strong, but because of weak demand is difficult to transmit to the downstream. Steel mills are taking losses ahead of the consumer end, reducing capacity utilisation to support prices and reducing demand for raw materials. Nickel raw material profit is high, oversupply, the first to decline, chromium also follow the rise down, recently 304 cold rolling profit turned positive, which shows the production reduction of raw material restraint.
In February, domestic steel production and downstream demand recovered compared with the Spring Festival, but the market demand did not meet expectations, and overseas export orders are poor, downstream purchase intention is general, steel mills and the market to slow inventory, stainless steel spot price trend first up and then down.
Mills are also running at around 80 per cent, with room for improvement, meaning higher profits will spur more capacity release. In February, the output of steel mills increased by more than 30% month-on-month, and is expected to continue to increase month-on-month in March. The return of resources from Indonesia is also putting more pressure on the domestic market. Although there are some signs of economic recovery, it is still weak compared with the same period last year, and it is not known whether it can continue. Whether the inventory pressure can be smoothly removed needs to wait for demand verification.
In January and February, steel mills did not significantly reduce production during the off-season, and the demand side in January and February export orders shrink, domestic demand increment is not obvious, resulting in steel mill inventory and market inventory remained at a high level.
In March, steel mills were forced by high prices of raw materials. Although they were aware of the high cost loss, they had to speed up production and consume high prices of raw materials. With the construction of major infrastructure projects, the demand for hot rolled and medium thick plate continued to be stable in March, while the civil demand for cold rolled can gradually increase, but it still needs time and market guidance. High output and high inventory will be the main keynote of March, supply and demand contradiction is difficult to change quickly.
To sum up, the price of stainless steel in March is subject to the contradiction between supply and demand can not be alleviated, superimposed rational callback of raw materials makes the cost of stainless steel downward, the price trend of stainless steel in March may be down as the main keynote.