Long term nickel prices are still not optimistic, with stainless steel costs moving down and steel mills losing less-Zhejiang Benji Stainless Steel Co., Ltd

1、 Raw Material Report:

1. Nickel: On April 3rd, the three-month closing price of nickel in London was $23372, down $466, or 1.96%; The closing price of Shanghai Nickel 2305 was 175900 yuan, down 2360 yuan, or 1.33%. Shanghai High Carbon Chromium Iron FeCr55C1000 (50 base) 8800 yuan/50 base tons. 207000 yuan/ton for Luoyang ferromolybdenum FeMo60.

2. Stainless steel SS2305: The closing price on March 23 was 14690 yuan, down 30 yuan, or 0.21%; The holding volume is 98770 hands and the trading volume is 54577 hands.

3. Price of Dainan waste stainless steel

201 New materials 5400-5500304 Industrial 11000-11200304 New materials 10600-10700304 Particleboard 9300-9400;

316 shavings 17200-17300316 large furnace 17100-17200310 clinker 27100-27200;

430 No Film 4300-4400431 Returned Material 3950-4050

2、 Wuxi stainless steel plate coil reference price

1. Taiyuan Iron and Steel Hot Rolling Guiding Price:

300 hot rolled series: 15900 yuan/ton for 304/NO.1; 19300 yuan/ton for 321/NO.1; 26300 yuan/ton for 316L/NO.1.

Medium plate (cut edge, thickness: 14-20mm, width: 1500mm) 304 material -17800 yuan/ton, 321 material 23700 yuan/ton, 316L material 33200 yuan/ton.

2. Dongte Hot Rolling Guiding Price:

S30408 material: 14600 yuan/ton for 4-12mm, 14800 yuan/ton for 14mm; 15300 yuan/ton for 16mm;

S31603 material: 25600 yuan/ton for 4-12mm, 26000 yuan/ton for 14mm; 26500 yuan/ton for 16mm;

310S hot rolling costs 40300 yuan/ton for 3 and 4mm, 39400 yuan/ton for 5-12mm, and 40500 yuan/ton for 14mm.

3. Jiugang 2205 hot rolled at 28600 yuan/ton; Dongte 2205 hot rolled at 27800 yuan/ton.

4. Qingshan hot rolling: 304 material 14300 yuan/ton;

5. Zhangpu guide price: 15700 yuan/ton for 304 materials, 19500 yuan/ton for 321 hot rolled materials; 316L hot-rolled 26600 yuan/ton.

3、 Reference price of stainless steel pipe and rod

1. The price of Qingshan round steel is ? 65-130. S30400 material is 15000 yuan/ton, 316L material is 24800 yuan/ton, TP321 material is 18000 yuan/ton, and 321 material is 16800 yuan/ton. 304 raw pipe round steel price+900316L raw pipe round steel price+1000321 raw pipe round steel price+900.

2. S30400 material is 14600 yuan/ton, and 316L material is 24800 yuan/ton.

3. Yongxing Bar Material ? 65-130: 304 material 17800 yuan/ton, TP321 material 20600 yuan/ton, 316L material 30800 yuan/ton, 316LGB material 34800 yuan/ton, S22053 material 31800 yuan/ton.

4. S30400 material costs 18400 yuan/ton, 316LS material costs 29000 yuan/ton, and 32107 material costs 20600 yuan/ton.

5. [Fukai round steel market value] ￠ 65-130: Jiangyin Hanzhou 2205/F60 material 33500 yuan/ton, 2507 material/F53 material 40500 yuan/ton, 630/17-4PH material 18500 yuan/ton. Wuxi Puhengjia 304L material: 17600 yuan/ton for ? 140-250, 17800 yuan/ton for ? 260-400; The 316L material costs 27000 yuan/ton for ? 140-250, and 27200 yuan/ton for ? 260-400.

6. Zhejiang Benji Pipe Reference Price

Stainless steel seamless pipe 30408 material, specification 25 * 2 * 6000, cold drawn pipe, pickled and weighed for delivery -28 yuan/kg;

Stainless steel seamless pipe S31603 material, specification 25 * 2 * 6000, cold drawn pipe, pickled and weighed for delivery -42.6 yuan/kg;

Stainless steel seamless pipe S32168 material, specification 25 * 2 * 6000, cold drawn pipe, pickled and weighed for delivery -32.9 yuan/kg;

Stainless steel welded pipe 30408 material, specifications 219-813 * 4-6, pickled and weighed for delivery -21 yuan/kg;

Stainless steel welded pipe S31603 material, specifications 219-813 * 4-6, pickled and weighed for delivery -34 yuan/kg;

Stainless steel welded pipe 32168 material, specifications 219-813 * 4-6, pickled and weighed for delivery -28.9 yuan/kg.

4、 Statistical data According to Mysteel research:

On March 30, 2023, the social inventory of stainless steel in the mainstream market nationwide was 1376853 tons, a decrease of 30394 tons or 2.33% compared to last week. Among them:

The total inventory of cold rolled stainless steel is 735295 tons, a decrease of 37433 tons or 4.84% compared to last week;

The total inventory of hot-rolled stainless steel is 541558 tons, an increase of 7039 tons or 1.32% compared to the previous week;

The total inventory of the 200 series is 274084 tons, a decrease of 6129 tons or 2.19% compared to last week;

The total inventory of the 300 series is 773500 tons, a decrease of 14214 tons or 1.80% compared to last week;

The total inventory of the 400 series is 229269 tons, a decrease of 30394 tons or 4.20% compared to last week.

Wuxis inventory is 703541 tons, a decrease of 4441 tons or 0.63% compared to last week.

Foshans inventory is 407011 tons, a decrease of 26131 tons or 6.03% compared to last week.

Zibo, Jieyang, Shenyang, and Xian have 166301 tons of inventory, an increase of 178 tons or 0.11% compared to the previous week.

5、 Market analysis

Nickel, as a small metal, has been in a tight balance for a long time and is vulnerable to capital and market sentiment. In recent years, nickel has gradually become "demonized" due to factors such as the sudden rise in demand for power batteries and overseas conflicts. After the epic close air battle of Renni in March last year, the market as a whole is returning to rationality, and the "demon" nature has weakened.

In the trend of continuous supply side growth and unfulfilled demand expectations, the long-term nickel price in the future is still not optimistic. Nickel prices are gradually returning to fundamentals, and the factors that affect nickel prices will gradually be dominated by fundamentals. The current supply side maintains a growth trend, and the market focus is on the recovery of terminal demand. Therefore, the main factors affecting the trend of nickel prices are the consumption of stainless steel and ternary batteries. In 2023, the overall trend towards surplus is expected, and the long-term downward trend of nickel prices may continue.

As the basic demand for the downstream of the nickel industry chain, the demand for stainless steel in the future is lower than expected, and some steel companies are facing the dilemma of reducing production and stopping production. The negative feedback brought by high inventory pressure is transmitted upstream, causing the cost pressure of the nickel industry chain to be transmitted in the opposite direction, and nickel iron plants have experienced losses at one point. Production enterprises are also concerned about the terminal demand in the market this year. A staff member from Taiyuan Iron and Steel Stainless Steel (000825) (000825. SZ) told a reporter from Cailian News Agency that the supply and demand situation in the stainless steel market this year may not be as good as in the ordinary steel market. Nickel prices are too high, and some terminal demand may be replaced by aluminum or other materials.

Li Qiang, executive chairman of Hainan Stainless Steel Industry Association, Sichuan Chuanlian Stainless Steel Industry Chamber of Commerce, and Foshan Metal Materials Industry Association, said in an interview with the Associated Press of Finance, "Stainless steel production will be reduced, raw material prices will be adjusted, and 304 cold-rolled plates, for example, will return to a reasonable range of 15000 yuan/ton to 17000 yuan/ton, and then adjust the expectations of all parties in the industry chain to achieve a new balance cycle."

In fact, the stainless steel factory has started to reduce production. According to Mysteel data, in March, the production of crude stainless steel in China decreased by 86000 to 91000 tons, with varying degrees of reduction in various departments. Among them, the production of 200 series decreased by 7000 tons, the production of 300 series decreased by 77000 to 82000 tons, and the production of 400 series decreased by 2000 tons.

Stainless steel raw materials may continue to decline in April, causing the center of gravity of stainless steel prices to rapidly move downwards. With the continuous downward movement of costs, the losses of steel mills have gradually narrowed, and the power to reduce production on a large scale is clearly insufficient. However, the demand recovery was less than expected, and there is a widespread wait-and-see mentality of on-demand procurement in the downstream, resulting in a general shortage of orders from steel mills, which may continue to reduce production and sales. The contradiction between supply and demand of stainless steel in April may continue to be prominent, with limited improvement in inventory pressure, and prices may further decline.

Zhejiang Benji Stainless Steel Co., Ltd.,