Overseas economic recession is constantly materializing, and the stainless steel market will return to supply and demand fundamentals in May-Zhejiang Benji Stainless Steel Co., Ltd

1、 Raw Material Report:

1. Nickel: On May 4th, the three-month closing price of nickel in London was $23997, down $746, or 3.02%; The latest price of Shanghai Nickel 2306 is 183520 yuan, down 3610 yuan, or 1.93%. Shanghai High Carbon Chromium Iron FeCr55C1000 (50 base) 8900 yuan/50 base tons. Luoyang molybdenum iron FeMo60 dropped by 2500 yuan, or 1.04%, at 238500 yuan/ton.

2. The latest price of stainless steel SS2306 is 15375 yuan, down 75 yuan, or 0.49%; The holding amount is 77671 lots, and the trading volume is 112673 lots.

3. Price of Dainan waste stainless steel

201 New materials 5500-5600304 Industrial 10900-11000304 New materials 11100-11200304 Particleboard 9800-9900;

316 particle 17000-17200316 large furnace 18000-18300310 clinker 26900-27000;

430 without film 4500-4600431 return material 3400-3500.

2、 Wuxi stainless steel plate coil reference price

1. Taiyuan Iron and Steel Hot Rolling Guiding Price:

300 hot rolled series: 16300 yuan/ton for 304/NO.1; 18800 yuan/ton for 321/NO.1; 28000 yuan/ton for 316L/NO.1.

Medium plate (cut edge, thickness: 14-20mm, width: 1500mm) 304 material -17200 yuan/ton, 321 material 23200 yuan/ton, 316L material 32500 yuan/ton.

2. Dongte Hot Rolling Guiding Price:

S30408 material: 15200 yuan/ton for 4-12mm, 15400 yuan/ton for 14mm; 15900 yuan/ton for 16mm;

S31603 material: 27400 yuan/ton for 4-12mm, 27800 yuan/ton for 14mm; 28400 yuan/ton for 16mm;

310S hot-rolled flat plate 3: 39000 yuan/ton for 4mm, 38100 yuan/ton for 5-12mm, and 39200 yuan/ton for 14mm.

3. Dongte 2205 hot rolled at 28000 yuan/ton.

4. Qingshan hot rolling: 304 material 15000 yuan/ton;

5. Zhangpu guide price: 16000 yuan/ton for 304 materials, 18700 yuan/ton for 321 hot-rolled materials; 316L hot-rolled at 28000 yuan/ton.

3、 Reference price of stainless steel pipe and rod

1. The price of Qingshan round steel is ? 65-130. S30400 material costs 15400 yuan/ton in May, 316L material costs 25600 yuan/ton in June, TP321 sealing material costs 18300 yuan/ton in April, and 321 material sealing material costs 17100 yuan/ton in April. 304 raw pipe round steel price+900316L raw pipe round steel price+1000321 raw pipe round steel price+900.

2. S30400 material is 15400 yuan/ton, and 316L material is 25800 yuan/ton.

3. Yongxing Bar Material ? 65-130: 304 material 17800 yuan/ton, TP321 material 20600 yuan/ton, 316L material 30800 yuan/ton, 316LGB material 34800 yuan/ton, S22053 material 31800 yuan/ton.

4. S30400 material costs 17600 yuan/ton, 316LS material costs 27500 yuan/ton, and 32107 material costs 19800 yuan/ton.

5. [Fukai round steel market value] ￠ 65-130: Jiangyin Hanzhou 2205/F60 material 28500 yuan/ton, 2507 material/F53 material 37500 yuan/ton, 630/17-4PH material 18000 yuan/ton. Wuxi Puhengjia 304L material: 17600 yuan/ton for ? 140-250, 17800 yuan/ton for ? 260-400; 316L material: 25800 yuan/ton for ? 140-250, 26000 yuan/ton for ? 260-400.

6. Zhejiang Benji Pipe Reference Price

Stainless steel seamless pipe 30408 material, specification 25 * 2 * 6000, cold drawn pipe, pickled and weighed for delivery -28.8 yuan/kg;

Stainless steel seamless pipe S31603 material, specification 25 * 2 * 6000, cold drawn pipe, pickled and weighed for delivery -41.5 yuan/kg;

Stainless steel seamless pipe S32168 material, specification 25 * 2 * 6000, cold drawn pipe, pickled and weighed for delivery -32.8 yuan/kg;

Stainless steel welded pipe 30408 material, specifications 219-813 * 4-6, pickled and weighed for delivery -21.6 yuan/kg;

Stainless steel welded pipe S31603 material, specifications 219-813 * 4-6, pickled and weighed for delivery -35.8 yuan/kg;

Stainless steel welded pipe 32168 material, specification 219-813 * 4-6, pickled and weighed for delivery -28.1 yuan/kg.

4、 Statistical data (according to Mysteel research):

On April 27, 2023, the social inventory of stainless steel in the mainstream market nationwide was 1069962 tons, a decrease of 48423 tons or 4.33% compared to last week. Among them:

The total inventory of cold rolled stainless steel is 562797 tons, a decrease of 30383 tons or 5.12% compared to last week;

The total inventory of hot-rolled stainless steel is 507165 tons, a decrease of 17040 tons or 3.43% compared to last week;

The total inventory of the 200 series is 206443 tons, a decrease of 15598 tons or 7.02% compared to last week;

The total inventory of the 300 series is 619579 tons, a decrease of 35795 tons or 5.46% compared to last week;

The total inventory of the 400 series is 243940 tons, an increase of 2970 tons or 1.23% compared to the previous week.

Wuxis inventory is 607785 tons, a decrease of 22521 tons or 3.57% compared to last week.

Foshans inventory is 276455 tons, a decrease of 26325 tons or 8.69% compared to last week.

Zibo, Jieyang, Shenyang, and Xian have 185722 tons of inventory, an increase of 423 tons or 0.23% compared to the previous week.

5、 Market analysis

Supported by the tight supply of chromium ore resources, the price of ferrochrome is relatively strong, especially with steel mills increasing production in May and increasing demand for ferrochrome. There is limited room for steel mills to lower their bidding prices. In May, Qingshans high carbon ferrochrome bidding price was flat at 8795 yuan/50 base tons. However, the oversupply of ferrochrome has not changed, especially as imported ferrochrome will remain at a high level, and a slow decline in prices is a high probability

The competition in the stainless steel industry chain has been very intense this month. Currently, upstream mines have a strong willingness to raise prices, resulting in a relatively limited decline in ore prices in April. However, the impact of the Philippine rainy season in May on nickel ore shipments may continue to weaken, so there is still significant room for decline below the ore prices; The nickel iron factory has had a significant price increase effect this month, effectively driving the sentiment of the stainless steel industry chain. However, in the context of continued weak terminal demand, stainless steel still faces significant pressure. The intention purchase price of nickel iron by stainless steel factories has been consistently lower than the iron factorys quotation since late April, and the iron factorys price increase is gradually loosening. It is expected that the two party game of nickel iron prices will be the main focus of the May stainless steel market.

The order procurement increment of downstream terminals is limited, and the long-term improvement of supply and demand relationship is not significant. At the demand side, except for the energy and chemical industry and infrastructure engineering, the performance of downstream stainless steel cars, household appliances, kitchen appliances, products, building decoration, etc. is still normal, and direct exports (the EU blocks the export of Chinese stainless steel to Türkiye) and indirect exports (Europe and the United States have lower than expected demand for household appliances, kitchen appliances, products, etc.) will face pressure next.

Overall, the overseas economic recession is constantly materializing, and macro factors may continue to disturb nickel prices for a certain period of time; In terms of the stainless steel industry, the contradiction in the industrial chain has shifted to the game of nickel iron prices. Domestic demand may still be weak in May, and it is expected that stainless steel will fluctuate weakly.

To sum up, the rebound of market price in April was mainly caused by the rise of futures and short replenishment. It is expected that the supply of stainless steel will significantly increase in May, and the stainless steel market will once again fall into a situation of oversupply. If there are no major macroeconomic policies or hot events to stimulate, the stainless steel market in May will return to the dominance of supply and demand fundamentals, enter a new round of adjustment period, balance supply and demand again, and stainless steel prices may fluctuate and fall back.

Zhejiang Benji Stainless Steel Co., Ltd.,