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The steel factorys orders are very unsatisfactory, and the supply and demand contradiction for stainless steel will emerge in June
Postdate:2023-06-07 Views:680

1、 Raw Material Report:

1. Nickel: On June 6th, the closing price of nickel in London was $20968, up $70 or 0.34%; The latest price of Shanghai Nickel 2307 is 160360 yuan, up 1480 yuan or 0.94%. Shanghai High Carbon Chromium Iron FeCr55C1000 (50 base) 9200 yuan/50 base tons. The 251000 yuan/ton of Luoyang ferromolybdenum FeMo60 increased by 500 yuan or 0.20%.

2. The latest price of stainless steel SS2307 is 15185 yuan, up 55 yuan, or 0.37%; The holding volume is 66427 hands and the trading volume is 31057 hands.

3. Price of Dainan waste stainless steel

201 New material 5500-5600304 Industrial 10700-10800304 New material 11000-11100304 Particleboard 9900-10000;

316 shavings 17500-17600316 large furnace 19000-19100310 clinker 26900-27000;

430 No film 4400-4500431 Returned material 3400-3500.

2、 Wuxi stainless steel plate coil reference price

1. Taiyuan Iron and Steel Hot Rolling Guiding Price:

300 hot rolled series: 16000 yuan/ton for 304/NO.1; 18000 yuan/ton for 321/NO.1; 27500 yuan/ton for 316L/NO.1.

Medium plate (cut edge, thickness: 14-20mm, width: 1500mm) 304 material -16800 yuan/ton, 321 material 22700 yuan/ton, 316L material 32100 yuan/ton.

2. Dongte Hot Rolling Guiding Price:

S30408 material: 14700 yuan/ton for 4-12mm, 14900 yuan/ton for 14mm; 15400 yuan/ton for 16mm;

S31603 material: 26500 yuan/ton for 4-12mm, 26900 yuan/ton for 14mm; 27400 yuan/ton for 16mm;

310S hot-rolled flat plate 3: 38100 yuan/ton for 4mm, 37200 yuan/ton for 5-12mm, and 38300 yuan/ton for 14mm.

3. Dongte 2205 hot rolled at 28000 yuan/ton.

4. Qingshan hot rolling: 304 material 14600 yuan/ton;

5. Zhangpu guide price: 15500 yuan/ton for 304 materials, 18600 yuan/ton for 321 hot-rolled materials; 316L hot-rolled 27200 yuan/ton.

3、 Reference price of stainless steel pipe and rod

1. The price of Qingshan round steel in June is 15100 yuan/ton for S30400 material, 25600 yuan/ton for 316L material, 17800 yuan/ton for TP321 material, and 16600 yuan/ton for 321 material sealing in April. 304 raw pipe round steel price+800316L raw pipe round steel price+1000321 raw pipe round steel price+900.

2. S30400 material is 14700 yuan/ton, and 316L material is 25200 yuan/ton.

3. Yongxing Bar Material ? 65-130: 304 material 18000 yuan/ton, TP321 material 20800 yuan/ton, 316L material 31300 yuan/ton, 316LGB material 35300 yuan/ton, S22053 material 33000 yuan/ton.

4. S30400 material costs 18200 yuan/ton, 316LS material costs 29500 yuan/ton, and 32107 material costs 20200 yuan/ton.

5. 【 Fukai round steel market value 】 ¢ 65-130:

Jiangyin Hanzhou 2205/F60 material is 28500 yuan/ton, 2507 material/F53 material is 37500 yuan/ton, and 630/17-4PH material is 18000 yuan/ton.

Wuxi Puhengjia 304L material: 18200 yuan/ton for ? 140-250, 18400 yuan/ton for ? 260-400; The 316L material costs 27700 yuan/ton for ? 140-250, and 27900 yuan/ton for ? 260-400.

6. Zhejiang Benji Pipe Reference Price

Stainless steel seamless pipe 30408 material, specification 25 * 2 * 6000, cold drawn pipe, pickled and weighed for delivery -28.8 yuan/kg;

Stainless steel seamless pipe S31603 material, specification 25 * 2 * 6000, cold drawn pipe, pickled and weighed for delivery -41.5 yuan/kg;

Stainless steel seamless pipe S32168 material, specification 25 * 2 * 6000, cold drawn pipe, pickled and weighed for delivery -32.8 yuan/kg;

Stainless steel welded pipe 30408 material, specifications 219-813 * 4-6, pickled and weighed for delivery -21.6 yuan/kg;

Stainless steel welded pipe S31603 material, specifications 219-813 * 4-6, pickled and weighed for delivery -34.9 yuan/kg;

Stainless steel welded pipe 32168 material, specification 219-813 * 4-6, pickled and weighed for delivery -28.1 yuan/kg.

4、 Statistical data (according to Mysteel research):

According to Mysteels research, as of June 2, the total amount of domestic stainless steel drifting in the sea was 51828 tons, a total of 19 ships, a decrease of 4671 tons compared to the previous period, with 42294 tons from Fujian port and 9534 tons from Jiangsu port.

From May 26th to June 2nd, the total amount of domestic stainless steel unloading to port was 89528 tons, an increase of 20778 tons compared to the previous period; Foshan has 43856 tons, an increase of 1736 tons compared to the previous period; Wuxi has 45672 tons, an increase of 19042 tons compared to the previous period; 69507 tons from Fujian port and 23835 tons from Jiangsu port. (Jiangsu Steel Factory often uses small boats or cars for shipping to Wuxi, which is not within the monitoring range)

5、 Market analysis

Domestic real estate sales have fallen short of expectations, and there is pressure from credit expansion and the recovery of household consumption. The current domestic economic recovery situation is still unstable, and there is a lack of momentum for domestic economic growth. There is continuous depreciation pressure on the RMB. The manufacturing PMI continues to decline, with two consecutive months of economic contraction. Relevant indicators representing manufacturing production, demand, and prices have all shown a decline

At present, nickel is still in the contradiction between a mid line bearish situation and a low inventory situation. In the later stage, there is a significant increase in the supply of pure nickel, nickel iron, and nickel intermediate products. The primary nickel is transitioning from a structural surplus to a comprehensive surplus, and the mid line supply and demand of nickel are relatively short. It is expected that nickel prices will experience greater volatility and elasticity under short-term low inventory conditions, and in the medium to long term, nickel prices may gradually decline.

At present, the import volume of ferrochrome remains at a high level, and it is expected that the overall supply of ferrochrome in China will increase. Once the production of high emission stainless steel decreases, it means that the price of ferrochrome will enter a downward channel. It is expected that the short-term price of high carbon ferrochromium will be weak and stable, and the medium to long-term price may fluctuate between 8600 to 9000 yuan/50 base tons.

The situation of steel mills receiving orders from April to May is good, but from the current situation of steel mills receiving orders in June, it is very unsatisfactory. The enthusiasm of traders for hoarding has greatly decreased, and downstream procurement demand is gradually decreasing due to seasonal factors. Therefore, it is estimated that the supply-demand contradiction will gradually emerge in June, and seasonal factors on the demand side will unfold. If steel mills continue to experience low orders and the price of stainless steel falls faster than the price of raw materials, resulting in losses for steel mills, there will once again be a reduction in production and price protection for steel mills. At that time, there may be a situation of weak supply and demand.

From the current prices of raw materials purchased by the steel mill, it can be seen that the cost of raw materials used by the steel mill in June is relatively high, which provides some support for the future market situation. However, the high production output of steel mills and the weakening of the demand side, especially the lack of confidence, restrict the implementation of flexible demand procurement. The deterioration of supply and demand fundamentals may force the supply and demand relationship of stainless steel to rebalance, and stainless steel prices will also fluctuate weakly.

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