The center of gravity of the annual average price of stainless steel has shifted downwards, and there is limited room for upward movement in the short term-Zhejiang Benji Stainless Steel Co., Ltd

1、 Raw Material Report:

1. Nickel: On July 17th, the closing price of nickel in London was $21054, down $576, or 2.67%; The latest price of Shanghai Nickel 2308 is 162940 yuan, down 4520 yuan, or 2.70%. Shanghai High Carbon Chromium Iron FeCr55C1000 (50 base) 8900 yuan/50 base tons. 256000 yuan/ton for Luoyang ferromolybdenum FeMo60.

2. The latest price of stainless steel SS2308 is 14845 yuan, down 20 yuan, or 0.14%; The holding volume is 44894 hands and the trading volume is 41053 hands.

3. Price of Dainan waste stainless steel

201 New materials 5500-5600304 Industrial 10700-10800304 New materials 10400-10500304 Particleboard 9400-9500;

316 shavings 17400-17500316 large furnace 18700-18800310 clinker 26800-26900;

430 No film 4400-4500431 Returned material 3050-3100.

2、 Wuxi stainless steel plate coil reference price

III

1. Taiyuan Iron and Steel Hot Rolling Guiding Price:

300 hot rolled series: 15800 yuan/ton for 304/NO.1; 17500 yuan/ton for 321/NO.1; 27300 yuan/ton for 316L/NO.1.

Medium plate (cut edge, thickness: 14-20mm, width: 1500mm) 304 material -16300 yuan/ton, 321 material: 22600 yuan/ton, 316L material: 31800 yuan/ton.

2. Dongte Hot Rolling Guiding Price:

S30408 material: 14300 yuan/ton for 4-12mm, 14500 yuan/ton for 14mm; 15000 yuan/ton for 16mm;

S31603 material: 26200 yuan/ton for 4-12mm, 26600 yuan/ton for 14mm; 27200 yuan/ton for 16mm;

310S hot-rolled flat plate 3: 37100 yuan/ton for 4mm, 36300 yuan/ton for 5-12mm, and 37300 yuan/ton for 14mm.

3. Dongte 2205 hot rolled at 27700 yuan/ton.

4. Qingshan hot rolling: 304 material 14100 yuan/ton;

5. Zhangpu guide price: 15200 yuan/ton for 304 materials, 18500 yuan/ton for 321 hot-rolled materials; 316L hot-rolled 26900 yuan/ton.

3、 Reference price of stainless steel pipe and rod

1. The July price of Qingshan round steel is ? 65-130. S30400 material is 14600 yuan/ton, 316L material is 25400 yuan/ton, TP321 material is 17500 yuan/ton, and 321 material is 16300 yuan/ton. 304 raw pipe round steel price+800316L raw pipe round steel price+1000321 raw pipe round steel price+900.

2. S30400 material costs 14300 yuan/ton, while 316L material costs 25300 yuan/ton.

3. Yongxing Bar Material ? 65-130: 304 material 17000 yuan/ton, TP321 material 19800 yuan/ton, 316L material 29500 yuan/ton, 316LGB material 33100 yuan/ton, S22053 material 31500 yuan/ton.

4. Fukai Market Price:

1) 2205 material ? 65-130 round steel 28400 yuan/ton; 27600 yuan/ton for continuous casting billets made of 2205 material, ? 170-250;

2) TP316L continuous casting billet ? 150-250: 26300 yuan/ton; 3) NO8810 electroslag ingot ? 360-900: 72000 yuan/ton;

4) NO8825 electroslag ingot ? 360-900: 108000 yuan/ton; 5) 17-4 electroslag ingot ? 360-900: 2200 yuan/ton;

6) 625 vacuum electroslag ingot ? 360-900: 226000 yuan/ton; 7) 6600 vacuum electroslag ingots ? 360-900: 171000 yuan/ton;

8) C-276 vacuum electroslag ingot ? 360-900: 247000 yuan/ton; 9) 718 vacuum electroslag ingot ? 360-900: 195000 yuan/ton;

10) Jiangyin Hanzhou 2205/F60 material is 28500 yuan/ton, 2507 material/F53 material is 37500 yuan/ton, and 630/17-4PH material is 18000 yuan/ton.

11) Wuxi Puhengjia 304L material: 18200 yuan/ton for ? 140-250, 18400 yuan/ton for ? 260-400; The 316L material costs 27700 yuan/ton for ? 140-250, and 27900 yuan/ton for ? 260-400.

5. Zhejiang Benji Pipe Reference Price

Stainless steel seamless pipe 30408 material, specification 25 * 2 * 6000, cold drawn pipe, pickled and weighed for delivery -28.8 yuan/kg;

Stainless steel seamless pipe S31603 material, specification 25 * 2 * 6000, cold drawn pipe, pickled and weighed for delivery -41.5 yuan/kg;

Stainless steel seamless pipe S32168 material, specification 25 * 2 * 6000, cold drawn pipe, pickled and weighed for delivery -32.8 yuan/kg;

Stainless steel welded pipe 30408 material, specifications 219-813 * 4-6, pickled and weighed for delivery -20.7 yuan/kg;

Stainless steel welded pipe S31603 material, specifications 219-813 * 4-6, pickled and weighed for delivery -34.6 yuan/kg;

Stainless steel welded pipe 32168 material, specification 219-813 * 4-6, pickled and weighed for delivery -28.1 yuan/kg.

4、 Statistical data (according to Mysteel research):

According to Mysteel research:

On June 15, 2023, the social inventory of stainless steel in the mainstream market nationwide was 1012160 tons, an increase of 29674 or 3.02% compared to the previous week. Among them:

The total inventory of cold rolled stainless steel is 490922 tons, a decrease of 433 tons or 0.09% compared to last week;

The total inventory of hot-rolled stainless steel is 521238 tons, an increase of 30107 tons or 6.13% compared to the previous week;

The total inventory of the 200 series is 193655 tons, a decrease of 12264 tons or 5.96% compared to last week;

The total inventory of the 300 series is 563030 tons, an increase of 16650 tons or 3.05% compared to the previous week;

The total inventory of the 400 series is 255475 tons, a decrease of 25288 tons or 10.99% compared to last week.

Wuxis inventory is 553061 tons, an increase of 13846 tons or 2.57% compared to last week.

Foshans inventory is 267002 tons, a decrease of 7440 tons or 2.71% compared to last week.

Zibo, Jieyang, Shenyang, and Xian have inventory of 192097 tons, an increase of 23268 tons or 13.78% compared to the previous week.

5、 Market analysis

In the first half of the year, the overall stainless steel market in China showed a fluctuating trend after a decline, with the annual average price center shifting downwards. Throughout the first half of the year, the imbalance between supply and demand in the nickel market became increasingly severe. From the supply side, as a product with an external dependence of over 80% on raw materials, the import volume of nickel ore from January to May was 11.9475 million tons, an increase of 1.2108 million tons compared to the same period last year, with a magnitude of 11.27%. The increase in raw material supply is reflected in the market, which evolves into a blowout growth in primary nickel production. As of June 30th, the market price of Wuxi Taiyuan Iron and Steel 304/2B was between 15300-15800 yuan/ton, which has decreased by 10.89% compared to the beginning of the year. The average market price of Wuxi Taigang 304/2B in the first half of January to June 2023 was 16593.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.42% compared to the same period last year.

Looking back at the reasons for the weakness of stainless steel in the first half of the year, the imbalance between supply and demand of the main raw material nickel has led to a continuous decline in the market. The continuous decline in costs, coupled with significant supply and demand pressure on stainless steel itself, is the main reason for the gradual decline in the price center of the stainless steel market.

On the supply and demand side of stainless steel itself, on the one hand, stainless steel production capacity continues to increase and pressure slowly releases. The production capacity of stainless steel itself is still continuously increasing. In 2022, the cumulative new production capacity of domestic stainless steel reached 6.08 million tons, an increase of 14.36%. In the first half of 2023, the new production capacity of stainless steel continued to increase. With the gradual reaching of production capacity and the continued production of more new production capacity, there is an expectation of continued increase in the overall supply of stainless steel, which may increase market pressure. In this long-term process, the pressure on the overall market of stainless steel is slowly released.

After the continuous decline of nickel prices in the first half of the year, the issue of high valuation needs to be alleviated temporarily. In addition, there is still uncertainty in the short-term peripheral sentiment, and the initiative of nickel prices to continue to decline is insufficient. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being. From June to July, the production of 300 series stainless steel was at a high level, while the performance of terminal consumption was average. Moreover, the high profit status of nickel iron combined with the continuous expansion of new production capacity may lead to a downward trend in the price center of nickel iron in the later stage, and the upward space for stainless steel prices is limited. However, at present, the contradiction of stainless steel itself is not prominent, and there is no inventory pressure. The initiative of stainless steel price decline is insufficient, and in the short term, the stainless steel price may remain volatile due to external emotions. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being, and treat it with a bearish approach when facing high in the future.

Zhejiang Benji Stainless Steel Co., Ltd.,