Goldman Sachs said bearish nickel prices, nickel iron and stainless steel are continuing to expand and surplus-Zhejiang Benji Stainless Steel Co., Ltd

1. Raw material report:
1. Nickel: On July 28, London nickel closed at $22,307, up $618, or 2.85%; Shanghai Nickel 2309 latest price 172130 yuan, up 2860 yuan, an increase of 1.69%. Shanghai high carbon ferrochrome FeCr55C1000(50 base) 8900 yuan /50 base ton. Luoyang ferro molybdenum FeMo60 261500 yuan/ton, up 2500 yuan.
2, stainless steel SS2309 latest price 15260 yuan, up 90 yuan, an increase of 0.78%; The open position was 104,325 lots and the trading volume was 58,471 lots.
3, Dynan waste stainless steel price
201 New material 5500-5600, 304 Industrial 10100-10200, 304 new material 10500-10700, 304 Shavings 9400-9500;
316 Shavings 17400-17500, 316 large furnace 18900-19000, 310 clinker 26800-26900;
430 No film 4150-4250, 431 return charge 3150-3200.
Second, Wuxi stainless steel coil reference price
1, TISCO hot rolling guide price:
300 hot rolling series: 304/NO.1 16200 yuan/ton; 17,500 yuan/ton for 321/ NO.1; 27,600 yuan/ton of 316L/NO.1.
Middle plate (cut edge, thickness: 14-20mm, width: 1500mm) 304 material - 16600 yuan/ton, 321 material 22800 yuan/ton, 316L material 31900 yuan/ton.
2, Dongte hot rolling guide price:
S30408 material 4-12mm 14700 yuan/ton, 14mm 14900 yuan/ton; 15400 yuan/ton for 16mm;
S31603 material 4-12mm 26700 yuan/ton, 14mm 27100 yuan/ton; 27600 yuan/ton for 16mm;
310S hot rolled plate 3, 4mm 36900 yuan/ton, 5-12mm 36100 yuan/ton, 14mm 37100 yuan/ton.
3, Dongte 2205 hot rolling 27900 yuan/ton.
4, Qingshan hot rolling: 304 material 14,600 yuan/ton;
5, Zhangpu guide price: 304 material 15,600 yuan/ton, 321 hot rolled 18,500 yuan/ton; 316L hot rolling 27,300 yuan/ton.
Third, stainless steel pipe rod reference price
1, [Qingshan round steel price ￠65-130 August price] S30400 material 14,700 yuan/ton, 316L material 26100 yuan/ton, TP321 material 17,600 yuan/ton, 321 material 16,400 yuan/ton. 304 round steel price +800,316L series round steel price +1000,321 series round steel price +900.
2, 【 Delong round steel ￠65-130】S30400 material 15000 yuan/ton, 316L material 25600 yuan/ton.
3, [Yongxing bar ￠65-130] 304 material 17000 yuan/ton, TP321 material 19800 yuan/ton, 316L material 29500 yuan/ton, 316LGB material 33100 yuan/ton, S22053 material 31500 yuan/ton.
4. 【 Fukai Market price 】 :
1), 2205 material ￠65-130 round steel 28400 yuan/ton; 2205 material continuous casting billet 170-250 ￠27600 yuan/ton;
2), TP316L continuous casting billet - 150-250:26300 yuan/ton; 3), NO8810 electroslag ingot ￠360-900:72000 yuan/ton;
4), NO8825 electroslag ingot ￠360-900:108000 yuan/ton; 5), 17-4 electroslag ingot ￠360-900:22,000 yuan/ton;
6), 625 vacuum electroslag ingot ￠360-900:226000 yuan/ton; 7), 6600 vacuum electroslag ingot - 360-900:171000 yuan/ton;
8), C-276 vacuum electroslag ingot ￠360-900:247000 yuan/ton; 9), 718 vacuum electroslag ingot ￠360-900:195,000 yuan/ton;
10), Jiangyin Hanzhou 2205/F60 material 28500 yuan/ton, 2507 material /F53 material 37500 yuan/ton, 630/17-4PH material 18000 yuan/ton.
11), Wuxi Puhengjia 304L material 17100 yuan/ton of 140-250, 27700 yuan/ton of 260-400; 316L material - 27500 yuan/ton of 140-250, 27700 yuan/ton of 260-400.
5, 【 Zhejiang Benji pipe reference price 】
Stainless steel seamless pipe 30408 material, specifications 25*2*6000 cold drawn pipe pickling delivery - 27.9 yuan /kg;
Stainless steel seamless pipe S31603 material, specifications 25*2*6000 cold drawn pipe pickling delivery - 42.1 yuan /kg;
Stainless steel seamless pipe S32168 material, specifications 25*2*6000 cold drawn pipe pickling delivery - 32 yuan /kg;
Stainless steel welded pipe 30408 material, specification 219-813*4-6 pickling pound delivery -- 21.1 yuan /kg;
Stainless steel welded pipe S31603 material, specification 219-813*4-6 pickling pound delivery -- 35.1 yuan /kg;
Stainless steel welded pipe 32168 material, specification 219-813*4-6 pickling pound delivery - 28.1 yuan /kg.
Iv. Statistical Data (according to Mysteel survey statistics) :
According to Mysteel:
On July 27, 2023, the national mainstream market stainless steel social inventory of 1003,070 tons, 23,619 less than last week, a decrease of 2.30%, among which:
Cold-rolled stainless steel inventory total 495,680 tons, 4499 tons less than last week, a decrease of 0.90%;
The total inventory of hot-rolled stainless steel is 507,390 tons, 19,120 tons less than last week, a decrease of 3.63%;
The total inventory of 200 series is 200,889 tons, an increase of 1600 tons over the previous week, an increase of 0.80%;
The total inventory of 300 series is 571,837 tons, an increase of 2598 tons over the previous week, an increase of 0.46%;
The total inventory of 400 series is 230,344 tons, down 27,817 tons from last week, a decrease of 10.78%.
Wuxis inventory is 546338 tons, down 8405 tons from last week, a decrease of 1.52%.
Foshans inventory is 280,430 tons, 232 tons less than last week, a decrease of 0.08%.
Zibo, Jieyang, Shenyang, Xi an inventory 176,302 tons, 14982 tons less than last week, a decrease of 7.83%.

5. Market analysis
Goldman Sachs analysts said on Tuesday that nickel supply growth will outpace any potential demand growth and prices are at the top of the industry cost curve, providing a good opportunity to short. Goldman Sachs analysts said in a report that the nickel market will be oversupplied by 218,000 tonnes in 2023 and 306,000 tonnes in 2024. The investment bank expects nickel prices to average $19,000 / ton over the next three months and $16,000 / ton over the next 12 months. At 1556 GMT on Tuesday, nickel for delivery in three months was trading at $22,440 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange.
304 stainless steel is in a pattern of high realistic supply, weak realistic demand, increasing expected supply, good expected demand, and neutral inventory. In July, 300 series stainless steel production is at a high level, while the terminal consumption performance is general, nickel-iron and stainless steel are in a state of continuous expansion and excess capacity, the profit situation of the industrial chain after the recent price rebound is significantly improved, and the upward space of stainless steel prices is limited.

Zhejiang Benji Stainless Steel Co., Ltd.,