The traditional peak season expectation is fading, and the high production emissions from steel mills in March may increase the supply-demand contradiction-Zhejiang Benji Stainless Steel Co., Ltd

1、 Raw material report:

1. Nickel: On March 15th, the closing price of nickel in London was $18074, a decrease of $3, or 0.02%; The latest price of Shanghai nickel 2405 is 140510 yuan, down 130 yuan, or 0.09%; Shanghai high carbon ferrochrome FeCr55C1000 (50 base) costs 8800 yuan/50 base tons. The price of Luoyang molybdenum iron FeMo60 is 225000 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan.

2. The latest price of stainless steel SS2405 is 13720 yuan, up 120 yuan, or 0.88%; The holding amount is 166310 lots, and the trading volume is 143645 lots.

3. Purchase price of waste stainless steel at Fujian Qingtuo Recycling Yongchang Freight Yard:

1) 304 first grade (small punch plate, laser material, round steel, edge wire thick plate) materials are priced at 10100 yuan/ton, 304 new pipe head and corner materials are priced at 10000 yuan/ton, and 304 oil punch large particles are priced at 9300 yuan/ton.

2) 316L new pipe heads and corner materials cost 18000 yuan/ton, and 316 first grade white materials (small punching plate, laser plate, edge wire, round steel) cost 18100-18300 yuan/ton.

3) 2205 whiteboard, thick tube, and round steel are priced at 18000 yuan/ton, 2507 whiteboard, thick tube, and round steel are priced at 20800 yuan/ton, and 2520 whiteboard, thick tube, and round steel are priced at.

2、 Wuxi stainless steel plate coil reference price

1. Taiyuan Iron and Steel Hot Rolling Guide Price:

300 hot-rolled series: 15200 yuan/ton for 304/NO.1; 16200 yuan/ton for 321/NO.1; 25700 yuan/ton for 316L/NO.1.

Middle plate (cut edge, thickness: 14-20mm, width: 1500mm) 304 material -16900 yuan/ton, 321 material -21200 yuan/ton, 316L material -28700 yuan/ton.

2. Dongte Hot Rolling Guide Price:

S30408 material costs 13400 yuan/ton for 4-12mm and 13600 yuan/ton for 14mm; 13800 yuan/ton for 16mm;

S31603 material: 24200 yuan/ton for 4-12mm, 24500 yuan/ton for 14mm; 24700 yuan/ton for 16mm;

310S hot-rolled flat plates are priced at 35100 yuan/ton for 4mm, 34300 yuan/ton for 5-10mm, 34600 yuan/ton for 12mm, and 35600 yuan/ton for 14mm.

2205 hot-rolled 25400 yuan/ton

3. Dingxin 310S material costs 34200 yuan/ton for 3mm, 34300 yuan/ton for 4mm, and 34100 yuan/ton for 5-10mm.

4. Qingshan hot rolling: 304 material 13200 yuan/ton;

5. Zhangpu guide price: 13600 yuan/ton for 304 material, 16300 yuan/ton for 321 hot-rolled; 316L hot-rolled 24200 yuan/ton.

3、 Reference price for stainless steel pipes and rods

1. The March price of Qingshan round steel is ? 65-130. S30400 material costs 13300 yuan/ton, 316L material costs 23100 yuan/ton, TP321 material costs 16200 yuan/ton, and 321 material costs 15000 yuan/ton.

2. Zhejiang Friendship New Materials: The April price of S30400 material is 13100 yuan/ton for ? 160-260, and 13100 yuan/ton for ? 300-360. 316L material costs 23300 yuan/ton for ? 160-260, and 23300 yuan/ton for ? 300-360. 2205 material ? 160-260, 24300 yuan/ton.

3. Yongxing Bar Material ? 65-130: 304 material costs 16500 yuan/ton, TP321 material costs 19000 yuan/ton, 316L material costs 28000 yuan/ton, 316LGB material costs 31000 yuan/ton, S22053 material costs 29500 yuan/ton.

4. [Fukai Market Price]:

1) 2205 material ? 65-130 round steel 26700 yuan/ton; 24900 yuan/ton for continuous casting billets made of 2205 material with a diameter of ? 170-250;

2) TP316L continuous casting billet ? 150-250:24200 yuan/ton; 3) NO8810 electroslag ingot ? 360-900: 68800 yuan/ton;

4) NO8825 electroslag ingot ? 360-900: 99000 yuan/ton; 5) 17-4 electroslag ingots ? 360-900: 20000 yuan/ton;

6) 625 vacuum electroslag ingots ? 360-900: 28000 yuan/ton; 7) 6600 vacuum electroslag ingots ? 360-900: 160000 yuan/ton;

8) C-276 vacuum electroslag ingot ? 360-900: 237000 yuan/ton; 9) 718 vacuum electroslag ingot ? 360-900: 185000 yuan/ton;

10) Jiangyin Hanzhou 2205/F60 material costs 27000 yuan/ton, 2507 material/F53 material costs 36000 yuan/ton, 630/17-4PH material costs 17000 yuan/ton.

11) Wuxi Puheng Forged Round 304L Material: 15500 yuan/ton for ? 140-250, 16300 yuan/ton for ? 260-400; 316L material: 26200 yuan/ton for ? 140-250, 26400 yuan/ton for ? 260-400.

5. [Zhejiang Benji Pipe Reference Price]

Stainless steel seamless pipe 30408 material, specification 25 * 2 * 6000 cold drawn pipe, acid washed and weighed for delivery -26.5 yuan/kg;

Stainless steel seamless pipe S31603 material, specification 25 * 2 * 6000 cold drawn pipe, acid washed and weighed for delivery -38.7 yuan/kg;

Stainless steel seamless pipe S32168 material, specification 25 * 2 * 6000 cold drawn pipe, acid washed and weighed for delivery -30.6 yuan/kg;

Stainless steel welded pipe 30408 material, specification 219-813 * 4-6, acid washed and weighed for delivery -19.8 yuan/kg;

Stainless steel welded pipe S31603 material, specification 219-813 * 4-6, acid washed and weighed for delivery -32.6 yuan/kg;

Stainless steel welded pipe 32168 material, specification 219-813 * 4-6, acid washed and weighed for delivery -25.8 yuan/kg.

4、 Statistical data:

According to Mysteel research:

On March 14, 2024, the social inventory of stainless steel in the mainstream market nationwide was 1229409 tons, a decrease of 1635 tons or 0.13% from last week. Among them:

The total inventory of cold-rolled stainless steel is 730679 tons, a decrease of 5441 tons or 0.74% compared to last week;

The total inventory of hot-rolled stainless steel is 498730 tons, an increase of 3806 tons or 0.77% compared to last week;

The total inventory of the 200 series is 225060 tons, an increase of 3101 tons or 1.40% compared to the previous week;

The total inventory of the 300 series is 761686 tons, a decrease of 12279 tons or 1.59% compared to last week;

The total inventory of the 400 series is 242663 tons, an increase of 7543 tons or 3.21% compared to last week.

Wuxis inventory is 655878 tons, a decrease of 3304 tons from last week, a decrease of 0.50%;

Foshans inventory is 401502 tons, a decrease of 12086 tons from last week, a decrease of 2.92%;

Zibo, Jieyang, Shenyang, and Xian have 172029 tons of inventory, an increase of 13755 tons or 8.69% compared to last week.

5、 Market analysis

Today, the molybdenum iron market is temporarily operating steadily, and the approval process for nickel mines in Indonesia is accelerating. The amount of Indonesian nickel iron flowing back to the domestic market is gradually recovering, and there is a need to be vigilant about the risk of nickel iron surplus.

In January 2024, the export volume of stainless steel from India was 76800 tons, an increase of 6700 tons compared to the previous month, with a growth rate of 9.5%; An increase of 15400 tons year-on-year, with a growth rate of 25%. The import volume of stainless steel was 136700 tons, a decrease of 20600 tons compared to the previous month, a decrease of 13.1%; A year-on-year decrease of 11300 tons, a decrease of 7.6%.

Today, Qingshan lowered the price of 316L bars by 400 yuan/ton, and the 304 material has not been affected yet.

In terms of stainless steel supply and demand, nearly two weeks after the Spring Festival, spot transactions of stainless steel were lukewarm and did not show significant growth; Mainly due to the rapid and virtual increase in prices after the holiday, traders and end users have not entered the market to replenish inventory. The resumption of high emission production by steel mills in March will gradually highlight the supply-demand contradiction. Buyers only purchase goods based on their basic needs, which cannot meet the current high emission production of steel mills. It is necessary to lower the price to attract buyers to enter the site and replenish inventory in order to match it.

Looking ahead to the future, if the market price falls below the cost line of steel mills in the future, the price risk will weaken, attracting traders and end users to concentrate on replenishing inventory, gradually forming a rough balance between supply and demand. Steel mills will not reduce production but bear the loss of low-priced orders; Instead of actively reducing production, matching demand, and transmitting pressure to the raw material end, steel mills with weak competitiveness will be squeezed out of the market share by steel mills with strong competitiveness.

After the holiday, downstream work slowly resumed, and demand recovery was not ideal, with seasonal accumulation and a sharp increase in warehouse receipts. The terminal demand is still not ideal, and some manufacturers are offering price reductions and promotions. The traditional peak season expectation is fading, the market is offering discounts and promotions, and the willingness to hoard goods is not strong.

At present, all the focus is on the demand for stainless steel. If the recovery progress of demand is not as expected, it will be inevitable. From March to April, it may force the market to fall, and steel mills will reduce production, thereby achieving a new round of supply and demand balance and balancing the benefits of various processes in the industrial chain. The game of up and down processes in the industrial chain and the participation of funds may cause the fluctuation and weakening of stainless steel prices from March to April.

Zhejiang Benji Stainless Steel Co., Ltd.,