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Industry Report > November CPI shows that low prices continue, and stainless steel market transactions have not shown any improvement
November CPI shows that low prices continue, and stainless steel market transactions have not shown any improvement
Postdate:2024-12-30 Views:241
1、 Raw material report:
1. Nickel: On December 27th, the closing price of nickel in London was $15311, down 166 yuan, or 1.07%;; The latest price of Shanghai Nickel 2502 is 124270 yuan, a decrease of 1720 yuan, a decrease of 1.37%; Shanghai high carbon ferrochrome FeCr55C1000 (50 basis) costs 7800 yuan/50 basis tons. Luoyang molybdenum iron is priced at 231500 yuan/ton.
2. The latest price of stainless steel 2502 is 12935 yuan, a decrease of 45 yuan, a decrease of 035%; The holding volume is 96308 lots and the trading volume is 39325 lots.
3. Fujian Qingtuo Yongchang Freight Yard Waste Stainless Steel Purchase Price:
1) 304 new material small punch plate costs 9500 yuan/ton, 304 new material large plate tube costs 9300 yuan/ton, and 304 industrial material plate tube costs 9000 yuan/ton;
2) 316 new material, small punch plate at 17600 yuan/ton, industrial sheet tube at 17400 yuan/ton.
3) 2205 old material costs 17000 yuan/ton, new material costs 17500 yuan/ton; 2507 old material costs 19500 yuan/ton, new material costs 20500 yuan/ton, 2520 old material costs 21000 yuan/ton, and new material costs 23500 yuan/ton.
2、 Wuxi stainless steel coil reference price
1. Taiyuan Iron and Steel Hot Rolling Guide Price:
300 hot rolling series: 14500 yuan/ton for 304/NO. 1; 15300 yuan/ton for 321/NO.1; 24000 yuan/ton for 316L/NO.1.
Medium plate (trimmed, thickness: 14-20mm, width: 1500mm) made of 304 material -16700 yuan/ton, 321 material -19100 yuan/ton, 316L material -28300 yuan/ton.
2. Dongte Hot Rolling Guide Price:
S30408 material costs 12600 yuan/ton for 4-12mm and 12800 yuan/ton for 14mm; 13000 yuan/ton for 16mm;
S31603 material 4-12mm costs 22600 yuan/ton, 14mm costs 22900 yuan/ton; 23100 yuan/ton for 16mm;
310S hot-rolled flat plate 3 and 4mm costs 32800 yuan/ton, 5-10mm costs 32000 yuan/ton, 12mm costs 32300 yuan/ton, and 14mm costs 33300 yuan/ton.
2205 hot rolling 24500 yuan/ton
3. Qingshan Hot Rolling: 12500 yuan/ton for 304 material; Dingxin 310S material is priced at 31900 yuan/ton for 3mm, 32000 yuan/ton for 4mm, and 31800 yuan/ton for 5-10mm.
4. Zhangpu guide price: 12800 yuan/ton for 304 material, 15900 yuan/ton for 321 hot rolling; 316L hot rolling costs 23000 yuan/ton.
3、 Reference price for stainless steel tube and rod
1. The December price of Qingshan round steel is between 65-130 yuan. S30400 material costs 12550 yuan/ton, 316L material costs 22450 yuan/ton, TP321 material costs 15350 yuan/ton, 321 material costs 14150 yuan/ton, S22053 material costs 22950 yuan/ton, and 310S material costs 31350 yuan/ton.
2. 【 Zhejiang Friendship New Material Continuous Casting Billet 】 The price of 304 material is 12250 yuan/ton for ¢ 160-260 and 12350 yuan/ton for ¢ 300-360. 22150 yuan/ton for 316L material ¢ 160-260, 22450 yuan/ton for ¢ 65-130; 22350 yuan/ton for ¢ 300-360. 22750 yuan/ton for 2205 material ¢ 160-360, 23350 yuan/ton for ¢ 65-130; 28100 yuan/ton for 2507 material ¢ 160-360, 29900 yuan/ton for ¢ 65-130; 310S material costs 31200 yuan/ton for ¢ 160-360 and 31300 yuan/ton for ¢ 65-130. 16800 yuan/ton for 347H ¢ 300-360. 57000 yuan/ton for 904L material ¢ 160-360.
3. 【 Yongxing Bar Material ¢ 65-130 】 304 material costs 15500 yuan/ton, TP321 material costs 17900 yuan/ton, 316L material costs 26800 yuan/ton, 316LGB material costs 29600 yuan/ton, and S22053 material costs 28300 yuan/ton.
4. 【 Fukai Market Price 】:
1) 2205 (F60) material ¢ 150-300 round steel 24600 yuan/ton; 65-130 round steel 24800 yuan/ton;
2) 32000 yuan/ton for 310S material ¢ 150-300, 33000 yuan/ton for ¢ 65-130; 26000 yuan/ton for 309S material ¢ 65-130;
3) S32750 (F53) material ¢ 150-300 round steel 30800 yuan/ton; 65-130 round steel costs 33500 yuan/ton. S32760 (F55) material ¢ 65-130 round steel 37000 yuan/ton.
4) 316L ¢ 65-130 round steel at 25200 yuan/ton; 316Ti ¢ 65-130 round steel 28300 yuan/ton; National standard 316L ¢ 65-130 round steel 31500 yuan/ton; German standard 316 material ¢ 65-130 round steel 29000 yuan/ton; 317L ¢ 65-130 round steel 34700 yuan/ton;
5) 18000 yuan/ton for 321H material ¢ 65-130; 20500 yuan/ton for 347H material ¢ 65-130;
6) NO7718 ¢ 200-250 round steel 168000 yuan/ton; ¢ 65-130 round steel 170000 yuan/ton;
7) NO8810 ¢ 200-250 round steel 63500 yuan/ton; 65504-130 round steel costs 65500 yuan/ton.
8) NO8926/1.4529 material: ¢ 200-250 round steel 83500 yuan/ton, ¢ 65-130 round steel 72000 yuan/ton,;
9) NO8825 material: ¢ 200-250 round steel 92000 yuan/ton, ¢ 65-130 round steel 94000 yuan/ton;
10) NO8028 ¢ 200-250 round steel 82000 yuan/ton, ¢ 65-130 round steel 84000 yuan/ton;
11) NO8120 ¢ 200-250 round steel costs 79000 yuan/ton, and ¢ 65-130 round steel costs 81000 yuan/ton;
12) 630 material (17-4) ¢ 150-300 round steel 15900 yuan/ton, ¢ 65-130 round steel 15900 yuan/ton; 631 material (17-7) ¢¢ 65-130 round steel 18600 yuan/ton; 632 material (15-7Mo) ¢¢ 65-130 round steel 29300 yuan/ton;
13) 182000 yuan/ton for NO6625 material ¢ 200-250; 65-130 round steel 184000 yuan/ton;
14) 114000 yuan/ton for NO6601 material ¢ 200-250; 115000 yuan/ton for ¢ 65-130.
15) 132000 yuan/ton for NO6600 material ¢ 200-250; 134000 yuan/ton for ¢ 65-130.
16) 204000 yuan/ton for NO10276 ¢ 200-250; 65-130 round steel 208000 yuan/ton;
17) XM-19 ¢ 65-130 round steel, priced at 34300 yuan/ton;
18) S31254 material ¢ 65-130 round steel 61000 yuan/ton.
19) 904L material ¢ 65-130 round steel 62500 yuan/ton.
20) XM-19 material ¢ 65-130 round steel costs 34300 yuan/ton, 15-5PH (XM-12) material ¢ 65-130 round steel costs 18300 yuan/ton.
21) NO3030 material ¢ 200-250, priced at 149000 yuan/ton; 65-130 round steel costs 152000 yuan/ton.
155000 yuan/ton for NO4400 material ¢ 200-250;
22) 140000 yuan/ton for NO4400 material ¢ 200-250; 65-130 round steel costs 142000 yuan/ton.
23) 1.4460 material ¢ 65-130 round steel 23500 yuan/ton.
24) Wuxi Puheng forged round 304L material costs 14200 yuan/ton for ¢ 140-250 and 16300 yuan/ton for ¢ 260-400; 316L material costs 24500 yuan/ton for sizes 140-250 and 24700 yuan/ton for sizes 260-400.
5. Zhejiang Benji Pipe Reference Price
Stainless steel seamless tube 30408 material, specification 25 * 2 * 6000, cold drawn tube acid washed and weighed delivery -25.1 yuan/kg;
Stainless steel seamless tube S31603 material, specification 25 * 2 * 6000 cold drawn tube acid washed and weighed delivery -37.5 yuan/kg;
Stainless steel seamless tube S32168 material, specification 25 * 2 * 6000 cold drawn tube acid washed and weighed delivery -29.2 yuan/kg;
Stainless steel welded pipe made of 30408 material, specification 219-813 * 4-6, acid washed and weighed for delivery -19 yuan/kg;
Stainless steel welded pipe S31603 material, specification 219-813 * 4-6 acid washed weighing delivery -31.4 yuan/kg;
Stainless steel welded pipe 32168 material, specification 219-813 * 4-6 acid washed weighing delivery -25.3 yuan/kg.
4、 Statistical data:
According to Mysteel research:
On December 26, 2024, the social inventory of 89 caliber stainless steel warehouses in mainstream markets across the country was 903308 tons, a decrease of 34934 tons or 3.72% compared to last week. Among them:
The total inventory of cold-rolled stainless steel is 558150 tons, a decrease of 27342 tons or 4.67% compared to last week;
The total inventory of hot-rolled stainless steel is 345158 tons, a decrease of 7592 tons or 2.15% compared to last week;
The total inventory of the 200 series is 161914 tons, a decrease of 8848 tons or 5.18% compared to last week;
The total inventory of 300 series is 591405 tons, a decrease of 23064 tons or 3.75% compared to last week;
The total inventory of 400 series is 149989 tons, a decrease of 3022 tons or 1.98% compared to last week.
Wuxi inventory 50 warehouse caliber 569492 tons, a decrease of 9566 tons from last week, a decrease of 1.65%;
Foshan inventory is 244926 tons, a decrease of 21758 tons or 8.16% compared to last week;
The inventory in Zibo, Jieyang, Shenyang, and Xian is 88890 tons, a decrease of 3610 tons or 3.90% compared to last week.
5、 Market analysis
Official data shows that Chinas Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.6% month on month in November, with the decline widening for four consecutive months; Among them, food prices decreased by 2.7% month on month, with a decline exceeding the average level of the same period in the past 10 years by 2.5 percentage points. In the global fight against high inflation rates in 2024, Chinas low price state since the beginning of the year continues. The CPI approaching the critical point, analysis institutions, and investment banks have successively issued deflation warnings for 2025, bringing back an economic topic that has been discussed multiple times since last year: Is Chinas economy experiencing deflation?
With the continuous expansion of low-cost raw materials in Indonesia, the supply of refined nickel is expected to maintain incremental growth in 2025, while demand is unlikely to have any bright spots. The surplus pattern will continue to exert pressure on nickel prices, and it is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate weakly in 2025. The integrated process cost of wet intermediate products anchored at the bottom is expected to have a main operating range of 100000 to 150000 yuan/ton for nickel prices in 2025. It is recommended to short sell mainly on high prices. In addition, the biggest variable in nickel prices in 2025 lies in Indonesian nickel mines. If Indonesian policies affect the pace of nickel mine supply, it may be difficult to reverse the oversupply pattern in the nickel market, but it may bring opportunities for a temporary rebound in nickel prices.
Stainless steel has entered the off-season of consumption, with prices continuously falling and absolute prices relatively low. Traders are not optimistic about the market situation, and market transactions have not shown any improvement. There is a lack of willingness to stock up, and most merchants maintain low inventory levels.
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