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Industry Report > It is rumored that the Indonesian government will reduce this years nickel ore quota, causing a decrease in stainless steel inventory but no change in oversupply
It is rumored that the Indonesian government will reduce this years nickel ore quota, causing a decrease in stainless steel inventory but no change in oversupply
Postdate:2025-01-14 Views:27
1、 Raw material report:
1. Nickel: On January 3rd, the closing price of nickel in London was $15901, up 243 yuan, or 1.55%; The latest price of Shanghai Nickel 2503 is 128420 yuan, an increase of 1320 yuan, or 1.04%; Shanghai high carbon ferrochrome FeCr55C1000 (50 basis) costs 7800 yuan/50 basis tons. Luoyang molybdenum iron costs 231000 yuan/ton.
2. The latest price of stainless steel 2503 is 13185 yuan, a decrease of 25 yuan, a decrease of 0.19%; The open position is 146823 lots and the trading volume is 48156 lots.
3. Fujian Qingtuo Yongchang Freight Yard Waste Stainless Steel Purchase Price:
1) 304 new material laser plate costs 9300 yuan/ton, 304 new material large plate tube costs 9100 yuan/ton, and 304 industrial material plate tube costs 8800 yuan/ton;
2) 316 new material, laser plate 17300 yuan/ton, industrial sheet tube 16900 yuan/ton.
3) 2205 old material costs 16700 yuan/ton, new material costs 17300 yuan/ton; 2507 old material costs 18700 yuan/ton, new material costs 20000 yuan/ton, 2520 old material costs 20500 yuan/ton, and new material costs 23300 yuan/ton.
2、 Wuxi stainless steel coil reference price
1. Taiyuan Iron and Steel Hot Rolling Guide Price:
300 hot rolling series: 14500 yuan/ton for 304/NO. 1; 15200 yuan/ton for 321/NO.1; The price of 316L/NO.1 is 24300 yuan/ton.
Medium plate (trimmed, thickness: 14-20mm, width: 1500mm) made of 304 material -16700 yuan/ton, 321 material -19100 yuan/ton, 316L material -28300 yuan/ton.
2. Dongte Hot Rolling Guide Price:
S30408 material costs 12600 yuan/ton for 4-12mm and 12800 yuan/ton for 14mm; 13000 yuan/ton for 16mm;
S31603 material costs 22900 yuan/ton for 4-12mm and 23100 yuan/ton for 14mm; 16mm at 23400 yuan/ton;
310S hot-rolled flat plate 3 and 4mm costs 32600 yuan/ton, 5-10mm costs 31800 yuan/ton, 12mm costs 32100 yuan/ton, and 14mm costs 33100 yuan/ton.
2205 hot rolling 24500 yuan/ton
3. Qingshan Hot Rolling: 304 material 12600 yuan/ton; Dingxin 310S material is priced at 31700 yuan/ton for 3mm, 31800 yuan/ton for 4mm, and 31600 yuan/ton for 5-10mm.
4. Zhangpu guide price: 12800 yuan/ton for 304 material, 15900 yuan/ton for 321 hot rolling; 316L hot-rolled at 23100 yuan/ton.
3、 Reference price for stainless steel tube and rod
1. The January price of Qingshan round steel is between 65-130 yuan. S30400 material costs 12450 yuan/ton, 316L material costs 22300 yuan/ton, TP321 material costs 15250 yuan/ton, 321 material costs 14050 yuan/ton, S22053 material costs 22800 yuan/ton, and 310S material costs 31200 yuan/ton.
2. Zhejiang Friendship New Material Continuous Casting Billet
1) The price of 304 material is 12250 yuan/ton for ¢ 160-280, 12350 yuan/ton for ¢ 300-360, and 12250 yuan/ton for ¢ 65-130.
2) 22100 yuan/ton for 316L material ¢ 160-260, 22450 yuan/ton for ¢ 65-130; 22200 yuan/ton for ¢ 300-360.
3) 2205 material: 22700 yuan/ton for ¢ 160-360, 23300 yuan/ton for ¢ 65-105;
4) 28100 yuan/ton for 2507 material ¢ 160-360, 29900 yuan/ton for ¢ 65-105;
5) 310S material costs 31200 yuan/ton for ¢ 160-360 and 31300 yuan/ton for ¢ 65-130.
6) 16800 yuan/ton for 347H ¢ 160-360. 57000 yuan/ton for 904L material ¢ 160-360.
3. 【 Yongxing Bar Material ¢ 65-130 】 304 material costs 15500 yuan/ton, TP321 material costs 17900 yuan/ton, 316L material costs 26800 yuan/ton, 316LGB material costs 29600 yuan/ton, and S22053 material costs 28300 yuan/ton.
4. 【 Fukai Market Price 】:
1) 2205 (F60) material ¢ 150-300 round steel 24600 yuan/ton; 65-130 round steel 24800 yuan/ton;
2) 32000 yuan/ton for 310S material ¢ 150-300, 32800 yuan/ton for ¢ 65-130; 26000 yuan/ton for 309S material ¢ 65-130;
3) S32750 (F53) material ¢ 150-300 round steel 30500 yuan/ton; 65-130 round steel costs 33500 yuan/ton. S32760 (F55) material ¢ 65-130 round steel 37000 yuan/ton.
4) 316L ¢ 65-130 round steel at 25200 yuan/ton; 316Ti ¢ 65-130 round steel 28100 yuan/ton; National standard 316L ¢ 65-130 round steel 31500 yuan/ton; German standard 316 material ¢ 65-130 round steel 28700 yuan/ton; 317L ¢ 65-130 round steel 34700 yuan/ton;
5) 18000 yuan/ton for 321H material ¢ 65-130; 20200 yuan/ton for 347H material ¢ 65-130;
6) NO7718 ¢ 200-250 round steel at 171000 yuan/ton; 65-130 round steel at 173000 yuan/ton;
7) NO8810 ¢ 200-250 round steel 63500 yuan/ton; 65504-130 round steel costs 65500 yuan/ton.
8) NO8926/1.4529 material: ¢ 200-250 round steel 83000 yuan/ton, ¢ 65-130 round steel 71500 yuan/ton,;
9) NO8825 material ¢ 200-250 round steel 91000 yuan/ton, ¢ 65-130 round steel 93000 yuan/ton;
10) NO8028 ¢ 200-250 round steel 82000 yuan/ton, ¢ 65-130 round steel 83000 yuan/ton;
11) NO8120 ¢ 200-250 round steel costs 80500 yuan/ton, and ¢ 65-130 round steel costs 82000 yuan/ton;
12) 630 material (17-4) ¢ 150-300 round steel 15900 yuan/ton, ¢ 65-130 round steel 15900 yuan/ton; 631 material (17-7) ¢¢ 65-130 round steel 18600 yuan/ton; 632 material (15-7Mo) ¢ 65-130 round steel 29300 yuan/ton;
13) 182000 yuan/ton for NO6625 material ¢ 200-250; ¢ 65-130 round steel 185000 yuan/ton;
14) 114000 yuan/ton for NO6601 material ¢ 200-250; 115000 yuan/ton for ¢ 65-130.
15) 131000 yuan/ton for NO6600 material ¢ 200-250; 133000 yuan/ton for ¢ 65-130.
16) 202000 yuan/ton for NO10276 ¢ 200-250; 65-130 round steel priced at 206000 yuan/ton;
17) XM-19 ¢ 65-130 round steel, priced at 34300 yuan/ton;
18) S31254 material ¢ 65-130 round steel 61000 yuan/ton.
19) 904L material ¢ 65-130 round steel, priced at 61500 yuan/ton.
20) XM-19 material ¢ 65-130 round steel costs 34300 yuan/ton, 15-5PH (XM-12) material ¢ 65-130 round steel costs 18300 yuan/ton.
21) NO3030 material ¢ 200-250 costs 150000 yuan/ton; 65-130 round steel costs 153000 yuan/ton.
155000 yuan/ton for NO4400 material ¢ 200-250;
22) 140000 yuan/ton for NO4400 material ¢ 200-250; 65-130 round steel costs 142000 yuan/ton.
23) 1.4460 material ¢ 65-130 round steel 23500 yuan/ton.
24) Wuxi Puheng forged round 304L material costs 14200 yuan/ton for ¢ 140-250 and 16300 yuan/ton for ¢ 260-400; 316L material costs 24500 yuan/ton for sizes 140-250 and 24700 yuan/ton for sizes 260-400.
5. Zhejiang Benji Pipe Reference Price
Stainless steel seamless tube 30408 material, specification 25 * 2 * 6000, cold drawn tube acid washed and weighed delivery -25.1 yuan/kg;
Stainless steel seamless tube S31603 material, specification 25 * 2 * 6000 cold drawn tube acid washed and weighed delivery -37.5 yuan/kg;
Stainless steel seamless tube S32168 material, specification 25 * 2 * 6000 cold drawn tube acid washed and weighed delivery -29.2 yuan/kg;
Stainless steel welded pipe made of 30408 material, specification 219-813 * 4-6, acid washed and weighed for delivery -19 yuan/kg;
Stainless steel welded pipe S31603 material, specification 219-813 * 4-6 acid washed weighing delivery -31.4 yuan/kg;
Stainless steel welded pipe 32168 material, specification 219-813 * 4-6 acid washed weighing delivery -25.3 yuan/kg.
4、 Statistical data:
According to Mysteel research:
On January 9, 2024, the social inventory of 89 caliber stainless steel warehouses in the mainstream market nationwide was 904647 tons, an increase of 9640 tons or 1.08% compared to the previous week. Among them:
The total inventory of cold-rolled stainless steel was 561441 tons, an increase of 8668 tons or 1.57% compared to last week;
The total inventory of hot-rolled stainless steel was 343206 tons, an increase of 972 tons or 0.28% compared to last week;
The total inventory of the 200 series is 160069 tons, a decrease of 2656 tons or 1.22% compared to last week;
The total inventory of 300 series is 582035 tons, a decrease of 587 tons or 0.10% compared to last week;
The total inventory of 400 series is 162543 tons, an increase of 12883 tons or 8.61% compared to last week.
Wuxi inventory 50 warehouse caliber 560836 tons, an increase of 182 tons or 0.03% compared to last week;
The inventory in Foshan is 244231 tons, an increase of 1358 tons or 0.56% compared to last week;
Zibo, Jieyang, Shenyang, and Xian have inventory of 99580 tons, an increase of 8100 tons or 8.85% compared to last week.
5、 Market analysis
Within the day, the Shanghai nickel market rose with a red trend, indicating an improvement in market sentiment. However, the sentiment in the nickel ore market has not changed, and the price of nickel ore remains weakly stable. In the Philippines, there are limited mines with shipping capacity, and there is little room for a decline in mining prices. Downstream nickel iron prices are still at a low level, coupled with some iron mills reducing production for maintenance, domestic iron mills have a lower willingness to accept high nickel ore prices. On the Indonesian side, the domestic trade premium for nickel ore remains unchanged at+15. Recently, there have been rumors that the Indonesian government will cut this years nickel ore quota, which has raised market sentiment. If this policy is implemented, the nickel ore premium is expected to rise.
The production profit of stainless steel mills has been restored, and the overall social inventory has declined. The current market fundamentals are still in a state of oversupply. The spot price of stainless steel has risen, but the magnitude is not as significant as futures, and overall it is limited by the trading performance of the spot market. At present, stainless steel is still in a state of oversupply. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream merchants have a certain demand for stocking up, but overall it is still mainly based on replenishing inventory for essential needs, and there is little increase in terminal demand. In the future, it is necessary to closely monitor the production schedule, raw material prices, and turnover rate of supply side steel mills.
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