It is rare for stainless steel bottom to rise again for five years, and the downstream acceptance of high-priced molybdenum is close to the critical point.-Zhejiang Benji Stainless Steel Co., Ltd

First, the raw material report:
1. Nickel: On May 6, the closing price of nickel in London was $19,199, down $443, or 0.2.26%; The latest price of Shanghai Nickel 2606 is 149,060 yuan, down 4,530 yuan, or 2.95%. Shanghai high carbon ferrochromium FeCr55C1000(50 basis) 8650 yuan /50 basis tons. The reference price of domestic ferromolybdenum FeMo60 is 301,000 yuan/ton.
2. The latest price of stainless steel 2606 is 15,505 yuan, down by 1.21% in 190 yuan; The position was 149,010 lots and the turnover was 130,779 lots.
3. Price quotation of waste stainless steel in Dai Nan (RMB/ton):
1, 201 new materials 5250-5650, 304 new materials 9750-9950, 304 industry 9700-10000, 304 shavings 8850-9150.
2, 316 furnace 18300-18800, 316 shavings 16700-17000
3, 201 leftover 5600-5800, 201 old tube 4900-5100, 202 big furnace 5800-6100.
4, 430 No film 4600-4800, 431 Return charge 3600-3800
II. 【 Castle Peak Round Steel 65-130 】
S30400 is 15350 yuan/ton, 316L is 28350 yuan, TP321 is 18150 yuan/ton, and 321 is 16950 yuan/ton.
III. [Reference Price of Zhejiang Benji Pipe]
Stainless steel seamless pipe 30408 material, specification 25*2*6000 cold-drawn pipe pickling weighing delivery-25.3 yuan/kg;
Stainless steel seamless pipe S31603 material, specification 25*2*6000 cold-drawn pipe pickling weighing delivery-39.8 yuan/kg;
Stainless steel seamless pipe S32168 material, specification 25*2*6000 cold-drawn pipe pickling weighing delivery-29.7 yuan/kg;
Stainless steel welded pipe 30408 material, specification 219-813*4-6 pickling and weighing delivery-20.9 yuan/kg;
Stainless steel welded pipe S31603 material, specification 219-813*4-6 pickling and weighing delivery-37.2 yuan/kg;
Stainless steel welded pipe 32168 material, specification 219-813*4-6 pickling and weighing delivery-24.8 yuan /kg.
Fourth, market analysis
1. Nickel mine:
Supply side: Due to the quota reduction in Weida Bay at the beginning of the year, according to the mining rate, the annual quota of Weida Bay will be completely exhausted in the middle of this month, and the nickel mine in Weida Bay will enter a state of suspension of production and maintenance within this month. Indonesia revised the nickel mine price policy in the middle of the month, but at present, the price at the end of the mine has not increased significantly, but has declined. The release of refined nickel production capacity is limited, the mid-term contraction of the supply end is clear, and the cost support is stable.
Demand side: the stainless steel industry has entered the traditional off-season, with weak orders and pressure on prices, but the downstream inventory is low, and there is an expectation of replenishment after the holiday. In terms of inventory, the overall operating rate of domestic refined nickel rebounded significantly, and the low inventory price of intermediate products in each path was firm, and the demand for intermediate products was better than that of refined nickel. Domestic inventory was still at a high level and slowly went to the warehouse, and the structural shortage continued, which made it difficult for the supporting nickel price to fall deeply.
On the whole, Shanghai Nickel shows a strong trend of shock at present, and the pattern of price bottom rise remains unchanged. After continuous rise, there is the possibility of high-level shock, so be alert to the risk of short-term rapid high-level price decline. .
2. Ferromolybdenum
At present, after the rapid increase of molybdenum price, the downstream acceptance of high price is close to the critical point, and the procurement tends to be cautious in the short term. Recently, the prices of ferronickel and 316L stainless steel have risen synchronously, and the pressure of raw material cost is being transmitted to the downstream. With the support of cost, steel mills have a strong willingness to hold prices. If the terminals acceptance of stainless steel price increases gradually improves, it will indirectly provide buffer space for ferromolybdenum prices, and the possibility of short-term rapid decline is not high, but the push-up sentiment will be restrained to some extent.
3. Stainless steel
On the one hand, the policy change of nickel mine in Indonesia has pushed up the cost of nickel price, and the Weidawan nickel mine will stop production and maintenance this month, allowing nickel to run at a high level; On the other hand, ferromolybdenum broke through the 300,000 mark as scheduled, which together pushed up the cost of the whole series of stainless steel. The continuous rise of stainless steel prices is the result of multiple factors, such as rising costs, sellers maintaining quotations and low-level warehouse receipts, and its essence is the process of repairing the "abnormal squeeze" price difference in the previous period.
Although the current price is constantly refreshing the high point in recent years, the transaction scale has not been effectively followed up, which shows that the basis of price increase is not entirely due to the substantial improvement of supply and demand.
The future price trend will depend on the continuous game between cost and demand: if the demand side can not form an effective undertaking all the time, the upward space of price will be restricted; If the tightening of relevant policies in Indonesia is further transmitted to the actual supply contraction, the cost support will continue to consolidate the price bottom. Stainless steel maintains a strong shock trend in the short term.

Zhejiang Benji Stainless Steel Co., Ltd.,