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The Feds liquidity shrinks, the global bulk collapses, and the spot supply is weak. Stainless steel is really strong
Postdate:2021-08-20 Views:1541
1、 Raw material report:

1. Nickel: on August 20, the latest price of nickel in London was US $18450, up US $65, or 0.35%. The latest price of Shanghai nickel was 138870 yuan, down 2540 yuan, or 1.8%.   Shanghai ferrochrome fecr55c1000 (50 basis) is 10400 yuan / ton, and Shanghai ferromolybdenum femo60 is 164500 yuan / ton.

2. Stainless steel continuous: the latest price was 17580 yuan, down 195 yuan, down 1.10%. The position is 33382 and the trading volume is 55765.

3. Price of Dainan waste stainless steel

201 Ni≈1-1.5%5750-5950,304 Ni≥8%; Primary material 12600-12800304 Ni ≈ 7.6-8%; Return material 12000-12100;

316 return material 17000-17200, Ni ≥ 10%; Grade I material 17400-17500316l Ni ≥ 10% Mo ≈ 2% 17600-17800;

310S Ni=18-19% 22800-22000,430 Cr≈16%-18%; Mn ≈ 1% - 2% 4750-4900431 return 3200-3300.

2、 Wuxi stainless steel coil reference price

1. TISCO hot rolling guide price:

300 hot rolling series: 19200 yuan / ton of 304 / No.1; 22000 yuan / ton of 321 / No.1; 27700 yuan / ton of 316L / No.1.

Medium plate (trimming, thickness: 14-20mm, width: 1500mm) 304 material - 21300 yuan / ton; 304L material 21400 yuan / ton, 321 material 24700 yuan / ton, 316L material 30200 yuan / ton.

2. Dongte hot rolling guide price: 18900 yuan / ton for s30408 material 4-12mm, 19100 yuan / ton for 14mm and 19600 yuan / ton for 16mm; S31603 material: 27100 yuan / ton for 4-12mm, 27500 yuan / ton for 14mm and 28000 yuan / ton for 16mm; 309S hot-rolled white coil is 26500 yuan / ton, 310S hot-rolled white coil is 37800 yuan / ton, and 2205 hot-rolled white coil is 27000 yuan / ton.

3. Qingshan hot rolling: 304 material 18500 yuan / ton; 316L hot rolling 26000 yuan / ton

4. Zhangpu guide price: 19400 yuan / ton for 304 materials; 321 hot rolling 22100 yuan / ton; 316L hot rolling 27300 yuan / ton.

3、 Reference price of stainless steel pipe rod

1. [Qingshan round steel ¢ 65-130] 302 material 15700 yuan / ton; 17000 yuan / ton of TP304 material; 25020 yuan / ton for 316L material; 321 material 18200 yuan / ton; The price of f321 material is 19400 yuan / ton.

2. [Delong round steel ¢ 65-130] 304 material 16900 yuan / ton, 316L material 25000 yuan / ton.

2. [Fukai bar] starting from 30 tons: 24400 yuan / ton for s22053 material ¢ 65-130, 24800 yuan / ton for TP316L material ¢ 150-250, 17600 yuan / ton for TP304 material ¢ 150-250, 60000 yuan / ton for 904L material ¢ 65-130, 33000 yuan / ton for tp317l material ¢ 65-130, 30500 yuan / ton for S32750 material ¢ 65-130 and 36500 yuan / ton for 2520 material ¢ 65-130.

3. [Yongxing bar ¢ 65-130] 304 material 20200 yuan / ton; TP321 material: 23100 yuan / ton; 316 material 29500 yuan / ton; 316L material: 32500 yuan / ton; S22053 material 28500 yuan / ton.

4. [Huaxin Lihua bar ¢ 65-130] 304 material 19800 yuan / ton; 316ls material 27500 yuan / ton; 32107 material 22000 yuan / ton;

5. [Zhejiang Benji heat exchange tube] 25 * 2 * 6000 cold drawn specification - 30408 material, 29.2 yuan / kg; S31603 material: 39 yuan / kg;

6. [Zhejiang Benji welded pipe] 219-813 * 4-6 pickling specification - 30408 material 25.7 yuan / kg; S31603 material: 36.2 yuan / kg; 32168 material: 30.1 yuan / kg

4、 Inventory statistics of stainless steel mainstream markets (Foshan, Wuxi, Jieyang, Zibo, Shenyang and Xian)

On August 19, the inventory of stainless steel in the national mainstream market was 717200 tons, an increase of 22300 tons over last week, an increase of 3.21%.

1. Wuxi market 439500 tons, an increase of 22200 tons, an increase of 5.32%;

2. Foshan market 191100 tons, an increase of 10800 tons, an increase of 5.98%;

3. The mainstream market in China was 175700 tons, an increase of 6100 tons, an increase of 3.61%;

4. The mainstream market in China was 416800 tons, an increase of 18500 tons, an increase of 4.63%;

5. The 400 mainstream markets in China were 124800 tons, a decrease of 2300 tons or 1.77%;

5、 Market analysis

1. Stainless steel inlet and outlet

In June 2021, the net export volume of domestic stainless steel was 242000 tons, an increase of 280.50% month on month. The significant growth of net export data was mainly affected by the decline of import and the significant growth of export. In June, the domestic stainless steel export volume was 466900 tons, an increase of 32.96% month on month, and the export continued to hit a record high. The month on month growth of exports is mainly to cope with the expected impact of "tax increase" on exports, thus accelerating the growth of exports of short-term coils, narrow strips, pipes, profiles and strips. The phased depreciation of RMB has increased the enthusiasm of market export to a certain extent.

2. Apparent consumption of stainless steel

In June, the apparent consumption of domestic stainless steel commodity materials was 2.6487 million tons, down 21.49% month on month. The decline of domestic apparent consumption of stainless steel is mainly affected by the decline of stainless steel production and the growth of net export, which is reflected in the decline of 200 and 400 series. In June, the stock to sales ratio increased, the table demand and inventory decreased, and the decrease of table demand was greater than that of inventory.

Under the influence of continuous profits of steel mills, it is expected that the domestic 300 series supply will remain high in August; The demand side still depends on the growth of overseas reserve demand under the expectation of export "tax increase". After the expectation is fulfilled or subsided, the extrusion of Indonesian stainless steel on Chinas stainless steel export share is superimposed, and the domestic terminal demand is always suppressed, so there may be an inflection point in the later export demand.

3. Trend analysis

In the early morning of the 19th (Thursday) Beijing time, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of the meeting. At the interest rate meeting in July, policymakers discussed the possibility of reducing the scale of bond purchase this year. The haze of liquidity contraction hit, causing the three major U.S. stock indexes and commodities to fall on Wednesday. Then the wind of falling spread in many capital markets around the world, followed by a decline in the Asia Pacific market on Thursday, followed by a sharp decline in Europe, and then the U.S. stock index fell again in the evening. In addition to the strong rise of the US dollar index, commodities such as crude oil, copper and iron ore plunged across the board, and the panic selling in the global capital market began?

Recently, pessimism spread in peripheral markets, non-ferrous metals and ferrous metals fell collectively, and stainless steel futures prices also continued to fall. With the centralized arrival of steel mills this week, the tight pattern of spot resources of 304 stainless steel has improved. During the week, the inventory began to increase to a certain extent, but it is still not abundant on the whole. The price of raw materials is still strong. There is still the expectation of limited production of stainless steel mills in the middle line, and the fundamentals of 304 stainless steel are still supported. However, the short-term downstream consumption is weak, and the export demand has also dropped. Before the real implementation of the production restriction policy, the upward driving force of prices is insufficient. Recently, it has been continuously impacted by peripheral pessimism, and the price of stainless steel futures has continued to adjust and wait and see for the time being.
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