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Industry Report > A new order of global ferronickel is being established, and the price of stainless steel is relatively strong
A new order of global ferronickel is being established, and the price of stainless steel is relatively strong
Postdate:2022-07-16 Views:2149
1、 Raw material report:
1. Nickel: on July 15, the three-month closing price of London nickel was $19385, down $17, or 0.09%. Shanghai nickels latest consecutive price was 150500 yuan, up 140 yuan, or 0.09%. Shanghai high carbon ferrochromium fecr55c1000 (50 basis) 9000 yuan /50 basis tons. Luoyang ferromolybdenum femo60 is 172000 yuan / ton.
2. Stainless steel continuous: the latest price is 16255 yuan, down 60 yuan, down 0.37%. The position is 38200 hands, and the trading volume is 63967 hands.
3. Dainan waste stainless steel price
201 old pipe 4750-4950304 industrial 11850-12050304 new material 12150-12250304 shavings 11250-11450;
316 shavings 17450-17650316 large furnace 18250-18450310 clinker 29750-29950;
430 film free 4450-4650431 returned 3900-4100
2、 Reference price of Wuxi stainless steel coil
1. TISCO hot rolling guide price:
300 hot rolling series: 19100 yuan / ton of 304/no.1; 321/ 23100 yuan / ton of No.1; 28900 yuan / ton of 316l/no.1.
Medium plate (trim, thickness: 14-20mm, width: 1500mm) 304 material - 21800 yuan / ton, 321 material 28000 yuan / ton, 316L material 32500 yuan / ton.
2. Dongte hot rolling guide price: 16600 yuan / ton for 304 material 4-12mm, 16900 yuan / ton for 14mm; 16mm 17300 yuan / ton; 316L material 4-12mm 26800 yuan / ton, 14mm 27200 yuan / ton; 27700 yuan / ton for 16mm;
3. Jiuquan Iron and steel 2205 hot rolling 31000 yuan / ton, dongte 2205 hot rolling 27500 yuan / ton.
4. Qingshan hot rolling: 304 material 16400 yuan / ton;
5. Zhangpu guidance price;: 304 material 17300 yuan / ton, 321 hot rolling 21100 yuan / ton; 316L hot rolling 27400 yuan / ton.
3、 Reference price of stainless steel tube and rod
1. [June futures price of Qingshan round steel ¢ 65-130] price s30400 material 16200 yuan / ton,; 316L material 25300 yuan / ton, TP321 material 18800 yuan / ton, 321 material 17600 yuan / ton, s22053 material (electrical connection) 26300 yuan / ton, 310S material (electrical connection) 45200 yuan / ton. 304 raw pipe round steel price +800316l raw pipe round steel price +900321 raw pipe round steel price +850.
2. [Delong round steel ¢ 65-130] price s30400 material 15800 yuan / ton, 316L material 24900 yuan / ton.
3. [Yongxing bar ¢ 65-130] 304 material 19800 yuan / ton, TP321 material 23100 yuan / ton, 316L material 31000 yuan / ton, 316gb material 35000 yuan / ton, s22053 material 31000 yuan / ton.
4. [Huaxin Lihua ¢ 65-130] s30400 material 21000 yuan / ton, 316ls material 31100 yuan / ton, 32107 material 23400 yuan / ton.
5. [Guoqing round steel ¢ 65-130] s22053 material 25100 yuan / ton (electronic discussion), s31008 material 40600 yuan / ton (electronic discussion).
6. [reference price of Zhejiang Benji pipe]
Stainless steel seamless pipe 30408 material, specification 25*2*6000 cold drawn pipe pickling weighing delivery - 28.4 yuan /kg;
Stainless steel seamless pipe s31603 material, specification 25*2*6000 cold drawn pipe pickling weighing delivery - 39.8 yuan /kg;
Stainless steel seamless pipe s32168 material, specification 25*2*6000 cold drawn pipe pickling weighing delivery - 32.2 yuan /kg;
Stainless steel welded pipe 30408 material, specification 219-813*4-6 pickling and weighing delivery - 23.4 yuan /kg;
Stainless steel welded pipe s31603 material, specification 219-813*4-6 pickling and weighing delivery - 35.8 yuan /kg;
Stainless steel welded pipe 32168 material, specification 219-813*4-6 pickling and weighing delivery - 30.4 yuan /kg;
4、 Statistical data
According to Mysteel research and Statistics:
On July 14, 2022, the social inventory of stainless steel in the national mainstream market was 861501 tons, an increase of 5.54% over last week, including:
The total inventory of cold-rolled stainless steel was 404609 tons, an increase of 2.18% over the previous week;
The total inventory of hot-rolled stainless steel was 456892 tons, an increase of 8.71% over the previous week;
200 series 144043 tons, with a month on month increase of 5.09%;
300 series 418023 tons, an increase of 2.03% month on month;
400 series 299435 tons, an increase of 11.11% month on month.
Wuxi inventory was 454199 tons, up 1% month on month.
Foshan inventory was 174604 tons, up 7.81% month on month.
The inventory of Zibo, Jieyang, Shenyang and Xian was 235698 tons, with a month on month increase of 13.66%.
5、 Market analysis
Recently, the U.S. dollar index has continued to hit new highs, peripheral pessimism has spread, and the impact of short-term macro factors is greater than industrial supply and demand. Nickel prices may remain weak. Earlier, when nickel prices rose, the Indonesian Minister of investment and maritime affairs coordination said that Indonesia plans to increase nickel production by 393000 tons to 400000 tons in 2022, bringing the total capacity to 1.4 million tons. He also said that next year Indonesia will add another 500000 tons of annual production capacity. In other words, with the overseas layout of Chinese enterprises and the support of local policies in Indonesia, the transfer plan of main production and sales areas is steadily advancing.
The new global order of ferronickel is being established, and the ferronickel industry will experience four important links: domestic production - Overseas plant construction - ferronickel reflux - local digestion. According to the overseas stainless steel layout of Chinese funded enterprises, it is expected that the local digestion of ferronickel and stainless steel reflux mode will come before 2025. At the same time, the production of high matte nickel in Indonesia continues to rise, the production advantages of Australia, Brazil and other places are gradually weakening, and the "main battlefield" of secondary nickel will also be transferred here. However, Indonesia, which has the advantage of resources, is difficult to make a major breakthrough in primary nickel in a short time. With the technological breakthrough from high matte nickel to primary nickel, this problem can be solved.
Recently, spot stainless steel and nickel prices have fallen, but nickel has fallen by a larger margin, and the price of stainless steel is relatively strong. Recently, steel mills have continued to reduce production significantly, high inventory needs to be digested, and the demand performance is relatively poor. Demand is not strong, spot resources are difficult to get out, the market is mainly for the purpose of shipping, preferential means to make profits constantly, low prices every new low, but the trading volume level is still small.
However, the arrival of goods is still increasing, resources are still being replenished, and under the pressure of inventory, the spot price has fallen, which is still the main route of stainless steel prices at present.
Although the price of stainless steel is still falling, the steel plant is still losing money, and the production reduction and maintenance situation has not changed, the price of raw material ferronickel has rebounded, and the cost support has recovered. According to the price difference analysis tool of business agency, the spot stainless steel and nickel prices have fallen recently, but nickel has fallen by a larger margin, and the price of stainless steel is relatively strong.
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