Indonesia delays the issuance of nickel mining quotas, "gold nine silver ten" expects "low peak season"-Zhejiang Benji Stainless Steel Co., Ltd

1. Raw material report:
1. Nickel: On September 4, London nickel closed at $21,040, down $45, or 0.21%; Shanghai nickel 2310 latest price 170240 yuan, down 870 yuan, down 0.51%; Shanghai high carbon ferrochrome FeCr55C1000(50 base) 9400 yuan /50 base ton. Luoyang ferro molybdenum FeMo60 283500 yuan/ton.
2, stainless steel SS2310 latest price 15,870 yuan, down 35 yuan, down 0.22%; The open position was 70,196 lots and the volume was 34,378 lots.
3, Wenzhou scrap stainless steel market quote:
On September 4, Wenzhou waste stainless steel market quotation: 201 non-film material 6100304 industrial material 11000,316 industrial material 20600,430 non-film material 4450. Unit: Yuan/ton, note: 304, 316 to Fujian price plus 100 yuan/ton.
Second, Wuxi stainless steel coil reference price
1, TISCO hot rolling guide price:
300 hot rolling series: 304/NO.1 16800 yuan/ton; 17700 yuan/ton of 321/ NO.1; 28,700 yuan/ton for 316L/NO.1.
Middle plate (cut edge, thickness: 14-20mm, width: 1500mm) 304 material - 17300 yuan/ton, 321 material 21600 yuan/ton, 316L material 31900 yuan/ton.
2, Dongte hot rolling guide price:
S30408 material 4-12mm 15300 yuan/ton, 14mm 15500 yuan/ton; 16mm of 16000 yuan/ton;
S31603 material 4-12mm 27500 yuan/ton, 14mm 27900 yuan/ton; 28,400 yuan/ton for 16mm;
310S hot rolled plate 3, 4mm 36500 yuan/ton, 5-12mm 35600 yuan/ton, 14mm 36700 yuan/ton.
3, Dongte 2205 hot rolled 29000 yuan/ton.
4, Qingshan hot rolling: 304 material 15,200 yuan/ton;
5, Zhangpu guide price: 304 material 15,900 yuan/ton, 321 hot rolled 18,500 yuan/ton; 316L hot rolling 28100 yuan/ton.
Third, stainless steel pipe rod reference price
1, [Qingshan round steel price ￠65-130 September price] S30400 material 15,600 yuan/ton, 316L material 27400 yuan/ton, TP321 material 18,500 yuan/ton, 321 material 17,300 yuan/ton. 304 round steel price +800,316L series round steel price +1000,321 series round steel price +900.
2, 【 Delong round steel ￠65-130】S30400 material 15,500 yuan/ton, 316L material 27200 yuan/ton seal.
3, [Yongxing bar ￠65-130] 304 material 18000 yuan/ton, TP321 material 20800 yuan/ton, 316L material 32000 yuan/ton, 316LGB material 35600 yuan/ton, S22053 material 34,500 yuan/ton.
4. 【 Fukai Market price 】 :
1), 2205 material ￠65-130 round steel 30400 yuan/ton; 2205 material continuous casting billet - 170-250 29600 yuan/ton;
2), TP316L continuous casting billet - 150-250:27800 yuan/ton; 3), NO8810 electroslag ingot ￠360-900:72000 yuan/ton;
4), NO8825 electroslag ingot ￠360-900:108000 yuan/ton; 5), 17-4 electroslag ingot ￠360-900:22,000 yuan/ton;
6), 625 vacuum electroslag ingot ￠360-900:226000 yuan/ton; 7), 6600 vacuum electroslag ingot - 360-900:171000 yuan/ton;
8), C-276 vacuum electroslag ingot ￠360-900:247000 yuan/ton; 9), 718 vacuum electroslag ingot ￠360-900:195,000 yuan/ton;
10), Jiangyin Hanzhou 2205/F60 material 29900 yuan/ton, 2507 material /F53 material 38500 yuan/ton, 630/17-4PH material 18000 yuan/ton.
11), Wuxi Puheng Forging round 304L material 17100 yuan/ton of 140-250, 17300 yuan/ton of 260-400; 316L material - 29400 yuan/ton of 140-250, 29600 yuan/ton of 260-400.
5, 【 Zhejiang Benji pipe reference price 】
Stainless steel seamless pipe 30408 material, specifications 25*2*6000 cold drawn pipe pickling delivery - 28.9 yuan /kg;
Stainless steel seamless pipe S31603 material, specifications 25*2*6000 cold drawn pipe pickling delivery - 44.1 yuan /kg;
Stainless steel seamless pipe S32168 material, specifications 25*2*6000 cold drawn pipe pickling delivery - 33.4 yuan /kg;
Stainless steel welded pipe 30408 material, specification 219-813*4-6 pickling pound delivery -- 21.7 yuan /kg;
Stainless steel welded pipe S31603 material, specification 219-813*4-6 pickling pound delivery -- 35.9 yuan /kg;
Stainless steel welded pipe 32168 material, specification 219-813*4-6 pickling pound delivery - 28.1 yuan /kg.
Iv. Statistical Data:
According to Mysteel:
On August 31, 2023, the national mainstream market stainless steel social inventory of 1043,991 tons, an increase of 43,173 over the previous week, an increase of 4.31%, including:
Cold-rolled stainless steel inventory 551,370 tons, 18,186 tons more than last week, an increase of 3.41%;
The total inventory of hot-rolled stainless steel is 492,621 tons, an increase of 24,987 tons over the previous week, an increase of 5.34%;
The total inventory of 200 series is 203,370 tons, an increase of 11,595 tons over the previous week, an increase of 6.05%;
The total inventory of 300 series is 640,575 tons, an increase of 14,848 tons over the previous week, an increase of 2.37%;
The total inventory of 400 series is 200046 tons, 16,730 tons less than last week, an increase of 9.13%.
Wuxis inventory is 557,037 tons, down 1,165 tons from last week, down 0.21%
Foshan inventory of 331,544 tons, an increase of 22,016 tons over the previous week, an increase of 7.11%.
Zibo, Jieyang, Shenyang, Xi an inventory 155,410 tons, an increase of 22,322 tons over the previous week, an increase of 16.77%.
5. Market analysis
1, ferro molybdenum: the mainstream price of ferro molybdenum is 282-285,000 yuan/ton.
2. Ferrochrome:
Recently, a steel mill in South China purchased high carbon ferrochrome at a transaction price of 9500 yuan /50 base tons (natural block including tax cash to the factory), with a turnover of 3,000 tons.
3 Nickel iron:
Indonesia, the worlds largest nickel producer, recently delayed the release of mining quotas, leading to tight supply and higher prices at the mine end. Enter the "gold nine silver ten" nickel market will go where?
"In mid-August, the Indonesian government carried out an investigation into the integrity of the Ministry of Energy and Mines, which led to the slow approval of new production quotas in nickel mines, some mines could not continue to ship due to the depletion of production quotas, and the rainy season in the Philippines is coming, and the tight supply atmosphere in the nickel mine market is spreading, which will raise the production cost of nickel-iron stainless steel in the short term."
Last week, Indonesia said it had reverted to the old approval process to ensure there would be no shortage of ore supplies to local smelters. The resumption of RKAB approval is expected to ease Indonesian nickel supply concerns in the medium term, but supply concerns at the mine end remain due to the longer approval process. Its impact on the market is mainly reflected in the price of nickel ore, nickel iron, stainless steel and the whole industry chain is running to a relatively high level.
"The Indonesian nickel mine incident has had a more obvious impact on the traditional industrial chain of the nickel market. Due to concerns about the supply of nickel ore in the later stage of the market, nickel ore prices have been firm, which in turn provides strong support for ferro nickel and stainless steel from the cost side.
Indonesian nickel mining events pushed up nickel mining profits, it is expected that Philippine nickel mine production will expand year-on-year, but with the arrival of the rainy season in October, mines in the region will also usher in production cuts, Philippine nickel mine supply tension has a certain relief, but the degree of relief depends on the impact of subsequent Indonesian events on nickel mine supply.
"It should also be noted that the Philippines nickel ore production is only about one-third of Indonesias, and if there is a significant reduction in Indonesias subsequent supply, the Philippines production increase is difficult to make up in time." At the same time, the increase in production in the Philippines is an increase in long-term supply capacity, while the supply problems in Indonesia are more caused by short-term disruptions. In the short term, the rainy season in the Philippines from October to March each year will lead to a decrease in local mine supply.
This year, "gold nine silver ten" is expected to show the characteristics of "low peak season". The main downstream of nickel is only the new energy demand for nickel sulfate is good, and the downstream of stainless steel, alloy and so on are not strong because of high prices. From the current market situation, nickel prices are mainly supported by macro interest, demand side support is limited, and the fundamentals are relatively weak. After the Indonesian nickel supply problem has eased, nickel supply and demand will continue to ease. Looking forward to the future market, he expects that in the short term, macro factors or support nickel prices to run at a high level, but considering that the current fundamental support is not sufficient, nickel prices still have a large space to fall.
3, stainless steel:
Stainless steel is also in the off-season consumption in August, there is a "off-season is not weak" performance. However, she believes that the fundamentals of pure nickel and nickel iron are very different, the price trend is differentiated, and the strength of nickel ore prices has not yet had a greater impact on the price of nickel on the plate. The actual demand for stainless steel is still relatively weak, the early stage is mainly phased rigid replenishment, Foshan stainless steel weekly transaction data is basically the same as last year, and the household appliance production data in September continues to weaken.
In terms of stainless steel, due to the current nickel ore price is still strong, the production cost of steel mills remains high, and the later cost end will effectively support the price of stainless steel. At the same time, the inventory and sales pressure brought by high production scheduling and cost support will continue to act on the price of stainless steel. "Entering September, if the peak season demand is expected to be effectively released, spot sales pressure is eased, and prices are likely to rise further; If the consumption expectations of the peak season are disappointed, the upward space for stainless steel prices is limited. Late to continue to pay attention to the peak season consumption can be fulfilled.

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Zhejiang Benji Stainless Steel Co., Ltd.,